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China is getting the epidemic under control, but most of the world is unprepared Will Iran be the next China?

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Dr KK Aggarwal    25 February 2020

With 12 deaths and 61 cases in Iran, looks like that the Iran government is hiding the actual extent of the outbreak. If the virus kills about 2 percent of known victims, then a rough case estimate can be obtained by multiplying the number of deaths by 50. This would mean that Iran has 600 cases.

In fact, the death rate outside of China is 1% and in that case, the number will be much higher in Iran. 

Furthermore, cases in Iraq, Afghanistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Lebanon, United Arab Emirates and Canada have been traced to Iran.

Ahmad Amiri Farahani, a lawmaker representing Qom, a pilgrimage destination that has hundreds of Chinese students, has claimed that the novel virus has killed at least 50 people there, reports New York Times.  

“Every day 10 people are dying in Qom,” he said in Parliament, asking for a quarantine on the city. Health ministry officials have; however, disputed his claims. “I will resign if the numbers are even half or a quarter of this,” said Ahmad Harirchi, an adviser to the health minister.

Even if we agree, the number is still 3 deaths per day. 

The borders of Iran are crossed each year by millions of religious pilgrims, migrant workers and others. This is one of the biggest causes for worry in what threatens to become a global epidemic.

Italy update: The Italian government on the other side has introduced strict internal travel restrictions, closing off the worst-affected areas in the northern regions of Lombardy and Veneto. Nearly 50,000 people in 11 north Italian towns have been put under lockdown since Friday night. The police is patroling the areas and fines are being imposed on those found entering or leaving the outbreak areas.

[Excerpts from DNYUZ; The Guardian]

 

Dr KK Aggarwal

President CMAAO, HCFI and Past National President IMA

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