WHO has asked for countries and cities to prepare for the disaster that coronavirus threatens to cause. We hope COVID-19 behaves like SARS and MERS and never enters India, but we need to be prepared for the worst.

If coronavirus comes to India, what will happen? Let us take Delhi as example with 1.67 crore population (1.67879410) and the worst possible scenario -

1. In Diamond princess ship quarantine, 23% got infected and 4 died (likely 10 deaths). If you quarantine people with infected cases, 22% may get infected.
2. Out of 1200 who attended church in South Korea, one lady infected many others. Health officials were screening some 9,300 church followers and said that 1,261 of them have exhibited cough and other symptoms (13.55%).
3. China locked down 5 crore people with self-quarantine policy; 80,000 got infected (0.0016% of the community), with 2760 deaths (0.0000552% of the population).

Serious cases 20% with 15% mortality

647,406 people had close contact with infected patients (1:8 patients).

Likely Delhi scenario as on today (if Wuhan gets replicated)

Total expected positive in 1.67 crore population = 26720

Likely contacts: 213760

Expected serious cases = 20% = 4008

Likely deaths: 926

At risk 60+ population in Delhi = 1164147

Preparedness needed in Delhi

• 4000 coronavirus beds (15% of patients)
• Self-quarantine of 17,000-20,000 patients
• No admission for patients without breathlessness
• Paid teleconsultation of mild cases
• ICU beds with ventilatory care 3% (801 beds)
• Listing of hospitals with ECHMO machines
• PPE 5 per patient (20,000 per day)
• Surgical masks usage:  213760 per day
• Hand sanitizers: at least 2 lac per day
• Healthcare providers dedicated with coronavirus handling training: 20,000
• 250 persons trained in handling dead bodies of infected cases
• 500-1000 dedicated mental health counselors to tackle coronavirus anxiety.
• 20 coronavirus spokesmen to speak the same language.
• Price cap of masks, other related diagnostics and PPEs.
• Censoring of myths and fake news on social media. 

Dr KK Aggarwal

President CMAAO, HCFI and Past National President IMA