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COVID-19: More cases outside China (903) than in China (435) yesterday

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Dr KK Aggarwal    27 February 2020

CMAAO Update on COVID-19 - 27th February

Update: 48 countries, 82,166 cases, 2800 deaths, 32,812 recovered, 46,554 currently infected patients, 37,686 (81%) in mild condition, 8,868 (18%) serious or critical; likely deaths (2773 + 8868 x 15) = 4130 with the present trend and available treatment; more cases outside China (903) than in China (435) yesterday; emergency in San Francisco; Saudi Arabia suspends entry for Muslim pilgrims; 8 deaths outside China yesterday; total 3667 cases outside China

Number of tests and positivity rate for COVID-19 as of Feb 26

  • 7,132 concluded tests in UK; 13 positive (2% positivity rate).
  • 9,462 tests in Italy; 470positive (0% positivity rate),
  • 762 tests in France17 positive (2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results. 
  • 321 tests in Austria;2 positive (6% positivity rate),
  • 445 concluded tests in US;14 positive (1% positivity rate). 

(Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

COVID 19 SUTRA

COVID-19 virus possibly behaves like SARS; causes mild illness in 82%, severe illness in 15%, critical illness in 3% and death in 2% cases (15% of admitted serious cases, 71% with comorbidity); affects all ages but predominantly males (56%) with median age 59 years (2-74 years, less in children below 15);  with variable incubation period days (2-14;  mean 3 based on 1,324 cases, 5.2 days based on 425 cases,  6.4 days in travellers from Wuhan);  mean time to symptoms 5 days,  mean time to pneumonia 9 days, mean time to death 14 days,  3-4 reproductive number R0  (flu 1.2 and SARS 2), epidemic doubling time 7.5 days (Korea 1 day probably due to super-spreader), Tripling time in Korea 3 days, has origin possibly from bats, spreads via large droplets and predominantly from people having lower respiratory infections and hence, standard droplet precautions are the answer for the public and close contacts and airborne precautions for the healthcare workers dealing with the secretions.

Clinically all patients have fever; 75% have cough; 50% have weakness; 50% have breathlessness with low total white count and deranged liver enzymes. About 20% need ICU care and 15% of them are fatal. 

Treatment is symptomatic though chloroquine, anti-viral and anti-HIV drugs have shown some efficacy.

Phases

Public Health Emergency of International Concern 30th Jan 2020: It is mandatory to report each human and animal case to the WHO.

Prior 5 PHEICs:  

  1. 26th April 2009 - 10th August 2010: Swine flu
  2. May 2014: Polio: Resurgence of wild polio.
  3. August 2014: Ebola; It was the first PHEIC in a resource-poor setting.
  4. Feb 1 2016 - 18 Nov 2016: Zika
  5. 2018–20: Kivu Ebola

 

Public Health Emergency of State Concern: Kerala - lifted on 12th Feb.

  1. Pandemic Alert 21stFebruary: US CDC: Tremendous Public Health Threat.
  2. 21stFeb: Community threat: WHO: "… we are concerned about the number of cases with no clear epidemiological link, such as travel history to China or contact with a confirmed case". Community spread: Cases have been detected in Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong and Japan in community where the source of the infection is not known.
  3. 24thFeb: Were in a phase of preparedness for a potential pandemic.
  4. 25thFeb: Preparing for community transmission of the COVID-19 coronavirus
  5. Close contacts of COVID-19 patients definition will change with community spread:Close contacts are people providing direct care to patients, working with infected healthcare workers, visiting infected patients or staying in the same close environment, working together in close proximity or sharing the same classroom environment with an infected patient, traveling together with infected patient, living in the same household as an infected patient. The epidemiological link may have occurred within a 14-day period before or after the onset of illness in the case under consideration.  But once the community spread occurs, the definition will no longer be correct.
  6. Final phase of community spread - closing borders will not contain the virus. All cases with flu-like illness will be presumed to be COVID-19 AND ONLY patients with breathlessness will be tested.
  7. 26thFebruary: The US CDC has suggested that the risk of a coronavirus pandemic is likely. San Francisco declared a state of emergency despite the fact that there are no confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the area.
  8. High risk countries: China, Macau, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Italy, Iran, and Japan.  

IMA Preparedness for community spread: CMAAO – IMA Mitigation guidelines

 Some salient points

  1. Corona Namaste: Let’s not shake hands; IMA and CMAAO promote the concept of Corona Namaste.
  2. It’s time for facts, not fear; for rationality, not rumors and for solidarity, not stigma.
  3. Help line: 23978046
  4. Total number = Lab-confirmed + CT-diagnosed cases (12-19 February); before and after that, only lab-confirmed cases
  5. No or little evidence to support the possibility of vertical transmission from the mother to the baby. [Lancet Feb 20]
  6. Sudden jump in deaths and new cases on 12thdue to inclusion of CT-diagnosed cases.
  7. Coronavirus vaccine could be ready in 18 months (WHO) 
  8. Human to human contact requires prolonged contact (possibly ten minutes or more) within three to six feet.
  9. 14thFeb: 1,716 medical workers have contracted the virus and six of them have died; 1,502 belong to the Hubei Province, with 1,102 of them from Wuhan. The numbers of infected workers amounts to 3.8% of China’s overall confirmed infections as of Feb. 11 with 0.3% deaths. (18th Feb: Director of Wuhan Hospital died). Over 3000 workers involved so far.
  10. Two workers who were sent to Wuhan in January end to help build new hospital have been infected
  11. The central banking authorities of China are disinfecting, stashing and even destroying cash in a bid to stop the spread of the coronavirus. People’s Bank of China says that the cash collected by commercial banks must be disinfected before being released to customers.
  12. Maharishi Valmiki Hospital in Delhi stops biometric attendance
  13. China has more than 80 running or pending clinical trials on potential treatments for COVID-19.
  14. 691 infected people have been found among 3,011 passengers and crew members tested (23% infection rate) out of 3,711 total people on the ship; 4 Deaths, 36 serious cases; Total likely deaths 10.
  15. Growing number of clusters of coronavirus cases: a party in a boat in Japan with 90 guests where one case spread infection to more than a dozen, or a church where 43 were infected.

This can be explained in 2 possible ways: a “super-spreader,” or person who can spread more germs than others; or people catching the virus from infected surfaces. It is not yet known as to how long the germs stay on surfaces, but similar viruses can live for as long as a week.

  1. Chinese researchers have published the largest analysis of coronavirus cases till date. While men and women have been found to be infected in roughly equal numbers, the death rate among men was 2.8% compared with 1.7% among women.
  2. Despite CDC protest, 14 Americans infected with coronaviruson the Diamond Princess cruise ship shared a plane back to the U.S. with healthy passengers, separated by plastic sheeting. (New York Post)
  3. An outlier of a 24 days incubation period has been observed. WHO said it could indicate a second exposure rather than a long incubation period, and stated that it wasnt going to change its recommendations. Hubei Province local government on Feb. 22 reported a case with an incubation period of 27 days. 
  4. A court temporarily blocked the U.S. government from sending nearly 50 people infected with a new virus from China to a Southern California city for quarantine after local officials argued that the plan lacked details about protection of the community from the outbreak. (Washington Post)

Travel Restrictions

Travel advisory

Level 1 in all countries (Exercise normal standard hygiene precautions)

Level 2 in all affected countries (Exercise a high degree of caution)

Level 3 in all countries with secondary cases (Reconsider need to travel)

Level 4 in affected parts of China and Korea (Do not travel)

Case fatality

COVID-19 2%; MERS 34% (2012, killed 858 people out of the 2,494 infected); SARS 10% (Nov. 2002 - Jul. 2003, originated from Beijing, spread to 33 countries, with 8,096 people infected and 774 deaths); Ebola 50%; Smallpox 30-40%; Measles 10-15% developing countries; Polio 2-5% children and 15-30% adults; Diphtheria 5-10%; Whooping cough 4% infants < 1yr, 1% children < 4 years; Swine flu < 0.1-4 %; Seasonal flu 0.01%; COVID-19 in Wuhan 4.9%; COVID-19 in Hubei Province 3.1%; COVID-19 Nationwide 2.1%; COVID-19 in other provinces 0.16%.

Number of flu deaths every year: 290,000 to 650,000 (795 to 1,781 deaths per day)

About the Virus

‘Corona’ means crown or the halo around the sun. Heart is considered a crown. Therefore, the arteries that supply oxygen to the heart are also called coronary arteries. Under an electron microscope, the virus appears round with spikes poking out from its periphery.

Single-strand, positive-sense RNA genome that ranges from 26 to 32 kilobases in length; A beta coronavirus from Corona family.

One of the three deadly human respiratory coronaviruses. Others are Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus [SARS-CoV] and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus [MERS-CoV]). COVID-19 is 75 to 80% identical to the SARS-CoV.

Origin: Wuhan, China, December 2019. 1st case informed to the world by Dr. Li Wenliang; died on 6th Feb.

The virus is likely to be killed by sunlight, temperature, and humidity. SARS was reported to have stopped around May-June, 2003 owing to more sunlight and more humidity.

Pathogenesis

High viral load: Detection of COVID-19 RNA in specimens from the upper respiratory tract with low Ct values on day 4 and day 7 of illness suggests high viral loads and potential for transmissibility. [NEJM]

COVID-19 uses the same cellular receptor as SARS-CoV (human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 [hACE2]), so transmission is expected only after signs of lower respiratory tract disease develop.

SARS is high [unintelligible] kind of inducer. When it infects the lower part of the lung, a very severe reaction occurs against it which leads to inflammation and scarring. In SARS, after the first 10 to 15 days, it wasn’t the virus but the body’s reaction was what was killing patients. Is this new virus in the MERS or SARS kind picture or is this some other type of virus - a milder coronavirus like the NL63 or the 229? It may be the mild (unintelligible) kind of inducer. [Dr John Nicholls, University of Hong Kong]

COVID-19 thrives better in primary human airway epithelial cells as compared to the standard tissue-culture cells, unlike SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV. COVID-19 will likely behave more like SARS-CoV.

Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV affect the intrapulmonary epithelial cells more than the upper airway cells. Transmission thus occurs principally from patients with known illness and not from patients with mild, nonspecific signs. However, NEJM has reported a case of COVID-19 infection acquired outside of Asia in which transmission appears to have occurred during the incubation period in the index patient, but the same has been challenged now.

Transmission

Zoonotic and linked to Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market as 55% with onset before January 1, 2020 originated there vs. only 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The Chinese government has put a ban on wildlife trade until the epidemic passes. 

This new coronavirus has a close relation with bat coronaviruses. Bats are the primary reservoir. While SARS-CoV was transmitted to humans from exotic animals in wet markets, MERS-CoV transmitted from camels. The ancestral hosts were probably bats; however. 

It transmits predominantly via droplets, like common flu and not like airborne illnesses (TB, Measles, Chicken pox). Kissing scenes have been banned in movies in China. In Kerala, air crew are exempted from breath analyser tests and China has banned death ceremonies, and people gathering together.

NEJM has reported a small cluster of five cases suggesting transmission from asymptomatic individuals during the incubation period; all patients in this cluster had mild illness. But the same has been challenged. Another patient got infected while using gown, but eyes were not covered.

Initial serious illness in other countries have been less as patients with breathlessness are unlikely to board and patients will mild illness or asymptomatic illness are less likely to transmit infections.

Legal Implications India: Section 270 in the Indian Penal Code: 270. Malignant act likely to spread infection of disease danger­ous to life.—Whoever malignantly does any act which is, and which he knows or has reason to believe to be, likely to spread the infection of any disease dangerous to life, shall be punished with imprisonment of either description for a term which may extend to two years, or with fine, or with both.

Quarantine has Limitations

China imposed quarantines across Hubei province, locking in about 56 million people, in order to stop COVID-19 from spreading.

Vietnam villages with 10,000 people near the nations capital have been placed under quarantine after cases of the new coronavirus were identified there.

  1. 22% quarantined in Diamond Princess cruise ship got infected.
  2. The people on quarantine are subjected to a 14-day quarantine. While placed together, if anyone is diagnosed with the infection during that period, the quarantine will add another 14 days.
  3. The longer several thousand people are placed together, waves of infection are propagated.
  4. A better way is to divide the people into smaller groups and quarantine them separately.
  5. Why quarantine children < 15 years of age when the virus is not risky for them.
  6. Why not separate elderly people with comorbid conditions at high risk of death and quarantine them separately in one to one or small groups.
  7. What is the need to allow people to celebrate and have cultural programs during quarantine, as was seen in India, when people danced together with surgical masks during quarantine period.
  8. Ventilation system can connect one room to the other. There have been concerns that coronavirus can spread through pipes.
  9. Stress and anxiety suppress the immune system, thus rendering people more vulnerable to contracting the virus. 
  10. Quarantine the people the way it was done in TB sanatoriums with both sun-balconies and a rooftop terrace where the patients would lie all day either in beds or on specially designed chairs.

Standard Respiratory Droplets Precautions

At triage: Surgical 3-layered mask for patients; Isolation of at least three feet distance; Cough etiquette; Hand hygiene.

Droplet precautions: Surgical 3-layered mask for patients, their contacts and healthcare workers, in an adequately ventilated isolation room; healthcare workers caring with secretions should use eye protection, face shields/goggles. Limit patient movement, restrict attendants and observe hand hygiene.

Contact precautions: Entering room – use gown, mask, goggles, gloves; remove before leaving the room; Dedicated equipment/disinfection after every use; Care for environment - door knobs, handles, articles, laundry; Avoid patient transport and practice hand hygiene.

Airborne precautions when handling virus in the lab and while performing aerosol-generating procedures. Room should be with negative pressure with minimum of 12 air changes per hour or at least 160 litres/second/patient in facilities with natural ventilation. There should be restricted movement of other people and gloves, long-sleeved gowns, eye protection, and fit-tested particulate respirators (N95 or equivalent, or higher level of protection) to be used by all.

Public

Strict self-quarantine if sick with flu-like illness for 2 weeks

Wash hands often and for at least 20 seconds with soap and water or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer.

Avoid touching eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.

Avoid close contact (within 3-6 feet) with people sick with cough or breathlessness.

Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.

Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.

Masks

Surgical 3-layered masks: For patients and close contacts

N 95 Masks: For healthcare providers when handling respiratory secretions.

Lab tests

  1. Two ways to detect a virus: through the genetic material DNA or RNA and to detect the protein of the virus. The rapid tests look at the protein. It takes 8-12 weeks to make commercial antibodies. Currently, PCR is being used which gives a turnaround in 1-2 hours.
  2. BOTH the upper respiratory tract (URT; nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal) AND lower respiratory tract (LRT; expectorated sputum, endotracheal aspirate, or bronchoalveolar lavage)
  3. Use PPE in the lab
  4. Use viral swabs (sterile Dacron or rayon, not cotton) and viral transport media
  5. In US, in January, all testing had to be done in CDC laboratories. However, on February 4, the US FDA issued an emergency-use authorization for the CDCs COVID-19 Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, allowing its use at any CDC-qualified laboratory in the United States. 
  6. Lab precautions: BSL 2 (3 for viral culture labs)

Treatment

  1. No proven antiviral treatment.
  2. With SARS, in 6 months the virus was gone and it never came back.  Pharmaceutical companies may not be willing to spend millions to develop a vaccine for something which may never come back.
  3. Secondary infection is the most likely cause of death of the patients in the Philippines and Hong Kong.
  4. A combination of lopinavir and ritonavir showed promise in lab in SARS. Combination of lopinavir, ritonavir and recombinant interferon beta-1b was tested in case of MERS.
  5. Scientists in Australia have reportedly recreated a lab-grown version of COVID-19.
  6. Chloroquine had potent antiviral activity against the SARS-CoV, has been shown to have similar activity against HCoV-229E in cultured cells and against HCoV-OC43 both in cultured cells and in a mouse model.  
  7. Thailand: Oseltamivir along with lopinavir and ritonavir, both HIV drugs.
  8.  Experimental drug: From Gilead Sciences Inc., called remdesevir (started on 6th Feb as a trial)
  9.  Russia and China drug: Arbidol, an antiviral drug used in Russia and China for treating influenza, could be combined with Darunavir, the anti-HIV drug, for treating patients with the coronavirus. (The COVID-19 shares some similarity to HIV virus also)
  10. PVP-I mouthwashes and gargles reduce viral load in the oral cavity and the oropharynx. PVP-I has potent viricidal activity against hepatitis A and influenza, MERS and SARS.
  11. The Drug Controller General of India has approved the "restricted use" of a combination of drugs (Lopinavir and ritonavir) used widely for controlling HIV infection in public health emergency for treating those affected by novel coronavirus.
  12. In SARS, people were put on long-term steroids ending with immunosuppression and late complications and death. The current protocol is short-term treatment.

Common Facts

  1. People receiving packages from China are not at risk of contracting the COVID-19 as the virus does not survive long on objects, such as letters or packages.
  2. There is no evidence that animals/pets such as dogs or cats can get infected with COVID-19.
  3. Pneumococcal vaccine and Hib vaccine do not provide protection against COVID-19.
  4. Regularly rinsing the nose with saline does not protect against infection with COVID-19 or respiratory infections although it may hasten recovery from the common cold.
  5. There is no evidence to suggest that using mouthwash protects from infection with COVID-19 although some brands of mouthwash can eliminate certain microbes for a few minutes in the saliva in your mouth.
  6. There is no evidence that eating garlic protects people from COVID-19.
  7. Sesame oil does not kill the new coronavirus. Chemical disinfectants that can kill the COVID-19 on surfaces are bleach/chlorine-based disinfectants, either solvents, 75% ethanol, peracetic acid and chloroform.
  8. People of all ages can be infected by COVID-19. Older people, and people with pre-existing medical conditions are at increased odds of becoming severely ill with the virus.
  9. Antibiotics do not work against viruses.
  10. There is no specific medicine recommended to prevent or treat COVID-19. 

 Trolls and conspiracy theories: Not validated and are fake news

  1. COVID-19 is linked to Donald Trump,and US intelligence agencies or pharmaceutical companies are behind it.
  2. Eating snakes, wild animals or drinking bat soup causes coronavirus infection.
  3. Keep your throat moist, avoid spicy food and load up on vitamin C.
  4. Avoiding cold or preserved food and drinks, such as ice cream and milkshakes, for at least 90 days.
  5. Experts have been aware of the virus for years.
  6. The virus was part of Chinas "covert biological weapons programme" and may have leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
  7. Linked to the suspension of a researcher at Canadas National Microbiology Lab. 
  8. China wants to kill 20,000 COVID-19 patients is totally false. The site is linked to a sex website.

Role of CMAAO and other Medical Associations

 Get prepared for containment measures, including active surveillance, early detection, isolation and case management, tracking contacts and prevention of spread of the virus and to share full data with WHO.  All countries should emphasize on reducing human infection, prevention of secondary transmission and international spread. Intensify IEC activities.

 CMAAO IMA FOMA MAMC Recommendations

  1. Price control of PPE
  2. Accreditation of private labs for testing
  3. Private insurance should cover the infection
  4. IEC and CME activities to be intensified
  5. Allow paid leaves for airborne and droplet infections
  6. Allow teleconsultations in flu-like diseases
  7. CSR funds for vaccine research
  8. Surgical three-layered masks at public places
  9. Start National program on respiratory secretions borne illnesses
  10. In India, incorporate respiratory infection control under Swachh Bharat

Case Definitions

 Suspect case

  1. Severe acute respiratory infection (fever, cough, need hospital admission), with no other cause that can explain the clinical presentation PLUS at least one of the following:
  • a history of travel to or residence Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in the 14 days before symptom onset, or
  • patient is a healthcare worker who has worked in an environment where severe acute respiratory infections of unknown etiology are being cared for.
  1. Any acute respiratory illness PLUS at least one of the following:
  • close contact with a confirmed or probable case of COVID-19 in the 14 days before illness onset, or
  • visit to or having worked in a live animal market in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in the 14 days before symptom onset, or
  • worked or attended a healthcare facility in the 14 days before symptom onset where patients with hospital-associated COVID-19 have been reported.

Probable case

A suspect case with inconclusive COVID-19 testing or testing was positive on a pan-coronavirus assay.

Confirmed case

Laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 infection, regardless of clinical signs and symptoms.

Severe acute respiratory infection (SARI)

ARI with history of fever or temperature ≥38°C and cough; onset within the last 10 days; need for hospital admission. Absence of fever does NOT exclude viral infection.

SARI in a person, with history of fever and cough requiring hospital admission, with no other cause to explain the clinical presentation (clinicians should be alert to the possibility of atypical presentations in immunocompromised patients)

AND any of the following:

  1. a)  A history of travel to Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in the 14 days before symptom onset; or
  2. b)  the disease in a healthcare worker working in an environment where patients with severe acute respiratory infections are being cared for, irrespective of place of residence or history of travel; or
  3. c)  development of an unusual or unexpected clinical course, especially sudden deterioration despite appropriate treatment, irrespective of place of residence or history of travel, even if another etiology has been identified that can explain the clinical presentation

 OR

A person with acute respiratory illness of any severity who, within 14 days before illness onset, had any of the following exposures:

  1. a)  close physical contact with a confirmed case of COVID-19 infection, while the patient was symptomatic: or
  2. b)  a healthcare facility where hospital-associated COVID-19 infections have been reported.

Uncomplicated illness

Patients with uncomplicated upper respiratory tract viral infection, may have non-specific symptoms such as fever, cough, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, headache, muscle pain or malaise. The elderly and immunosuppressed may have atypical symptoms. These patients have no signs of dehydration, sepsis or shortness of breath

Mild pneumonia

Pneumonia and no signs of severe pneumonia. Child has cough or difficulty breathing + fast breathing: fast breathing (in breaths/min): <2 months, ≥60; 2–11 months, ≥50; 1–5 years, ≥40 and no signs of severe pneumonia

Severe pneumonia

Adolescent or adult: fever or suspected respiratory infection, AND one of respiratory rate >30 breaths/min, severe respiratory distress, or SpO2 <90% on room air

Child: cough or difficulty in breathing, AND at least one of the following: central cyanosis or SpO2 <90%; severe respiratory distress (e.g. grunting, very severe chest indrawing); signs of pneumonia with a general danger sign: inability to breastfeed or drink, lethargy or unconsciousness, or convulsions. Other signs of pneumonia may be seen: chest indrawing, fast breathing (in breaths/min): <2 months, ≥60; 2–11 months, ≥50; 1–5 years, ≥40.

Diagnosis is clinical; chest imaging can help rule out complications.

Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome

Onset: new or worsening respiratory symptoms within one week of known clinical insult.

Chest imaging: bilateral opacities, not fully explained by effusions, lobar or lung collapse, or nodules.

Origin of edema: respiratory failure not fully explained by cardiac failure or fluid overload. Need objective assessment (e.g. echocardiography) to exclude hydrostatic cause of edema if no risk factor present.

Oxygenation (adults):

Mild ARDS: 200 mmHg < PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300 mmHg (with PEEP or CPAP ≥5 cm H2O, or non-ventilated)

Moderate ARDS: 100 mmHg < PaO2/FiO2 ≤200 mmHg with PEEP ≥5 cm H2O, or non-ventilated)

Severe ARDS: PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 100 mmHg with PEEP ≥5 cmH2O, or non- ventilated)

PaO2 not available: SpO2/FiO2 ≤315 suggests ARDS (including in non-ventilated patients)

Oxygenation (children; OI = Oxygenation Index and OSI = Oxygenation Index using SpO2)

Bilevel NIV or CPAP ≥5 cmH2O via full face mask: PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300 mmHg or SpO2/FiO2 ≤264

Mild ARDS (invasively ventilated): 4 ≤ OI < 8 or 5 ≤ OSI < 7.5

Moderate ARDS (invasively ventilated): 8 ≤ OI < 16 or 7.5 ≤ OSI < 12.3

 Severe ARDS (invasively ventilated): OI ≥ 16 or OSI ≥ 12.3

 

Sepsis

 Adults: life-threatening organ dysfunction due to a dysregulated host response to suspected or proven infection, with organ dysfunction.

Signs of organ dysfunction: altered mental status, difficult or fast breathing, low oxygen saturation, reduced urine output, fast heart rate, weak pulse, cold extremities or low blood pressure, skin mottling, or laboratory evidence of coagulopathy, thrombocytopenia, acidosis, high lactate or hyperbilirubinemia.

Children: suspected or proven infection and ≥2 SIRS criteria; of these one must be abnormal temperature or white blood cell count.

Septic shock

Adults: persisting hypotension in spite of volume resuscitation, need for vasopressors to maintain MAP ≥65 mmHg and serum lactate level >2 mmol/L

Children: any hypotension (SBP <5th centile or >2 SD below normal for age) or 2-3 of the following: altered mental state; tachycardia or bradycardia (HR <90 bpm or >160 bpm in infants and HR <70 bpm or >150 bpm in children); prolonged capillary refill (>2 sec) or warm vasodilation with bounding pulses; tachypnea; mottled skin or petechial or purpuric rash; increased lactate; oliguria; hyperthermia or hypothermia

(Source: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/clinical-management-of-novel-cov.pdf)

Confirmed cases and deaths

Country,Other

Total Cases

NewCases

TotalDeaths

NewDeaths

TotalRecovered

Serious,Critical

China

78,499

+435

2,744

+29

32,502

8,745

S. Korea

1,595

+618

12

+1

24

18

Diamond Princess

705

+14

4

 

10

36

Italy

470

+147

12

+1

3

35

Japan

172

+11

3

+2

23

13

Iran

139

+44

19

+3

25

 

Singapore

93

+2

  

62

7

Hong Kong

89

+4

2

 

18

6

USA

60

+3

  

6

 

Thailand

40

+3

  

22

2

Bahrain

33

+10

    

Taiwan

32

+1

1

 

5

1

Germany

27

+9

  

15

2

Kuwait

26

+15

    

Australia

23

+1

  

15

 

Malaysia

22

   

20

 

France

18

+4

2

+1

11

1

Vietnam

16

   

16

 

Spain

13

+4

  

2

 

U.K.

13

   

8

 

U.A.E.

13

   

3

2

Canada

12

+1

  

3

 

Macao

10

   

6

 

Iraq

5

     

Oman

4

     

Philippines

3

 

1

 

2

 

Croatia

3

+2

    

India

3

   

3

 

Austria

2

     

Finland

2

+1

  

1

 

Israel

2

     

Lebanon

2

+1

    

Pakistan

2

+2

    

Russia

2

   

2

 

Sweden

2

+1

    

Afghanistan

1

     

Algeria

1

     

Belgium

1

   

1

 

Brazil

1

     

Cambodia

1

   

1

 

Egypt

1

   

1

 

Georgia

1

+1

    

Greece

1

+1

    

North Macedonia

1

+1

    

Nepal

1

   

1

 

Norway

1

+1

    

Romania

1

+1

    

Sri Lanka

1

   

1

 

Switzerland

1

     
  • Highlighted in green

  = all cases have recovered from the infection.

  • Highlighted in grey

 = all cases have had an outcome (there are no active cases).

(Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) 

CMAAO _ Suggestions so far

  1. 7th Jan: CMAAO Alert: WHO to monitor Chinas mysterious pneumonia of unknown virus outbreak
  2. 8th Jan: CMAAO warns Asian citizens travelling to China over mystery pneumonia outbreak
  3. 10th Jan: Editorial: COVID-19 strain causing pneumonia in Wuhan, China, It’s a new strain of corona virus in the China pneumonia
  4. 13th Jan: China Virus Outbreak Linked to Seafood Market
  5. 15th Jan: First Case of China Pneumonia Virus Found Outside China in Thailand
  6. 17th Jan: WHO issues warning after mysterious Chinese COVID-19 spreads to Japan
  7. 17th Jan: India at threat of Coronavirus. CMAAO urges travel advisory on coronavirus: http://www.drugtodayonline.com/medical-news/nation/10379-cmaao-urges-travel-advisory-on-coronavirus.html  (18th Jan: Indian govt issues travel advisory as Chinas mysterious Coronavirus spread in other countries)
  8. 18th Jan: WHO issues warning after mysterious Chinese Coronavirus spreads to Japan [http://blogs.kkaggarwal.com/tag/who/]
  9. 18-20 Jan: Three countries CMAAO meet, also discussed COVID-19
  10. 22nd Jan: Still not being declared to be a notifiable disease; N 95 to be included in the list of essential drugs and price-capped; Oseltamivir should also be price-capped; flights should have masks available for all passengers; not declaring flu-like symptoms while boarding or landing should be a punishable offence (23rd Jan: India issues advisory to airports)
  11. 24th: Inter Ministerial Committee needs to be formed on COVID-19 (PMO took a meeting on 24th evening)
  12. 25th Jan: Indian government should pay for Indians affected with the virus in China
  13. 26 Jan: Need of National Droplet Infection Control Program; Policy to ban export of face masks; policy to evacuate Indians and people of neighboring countries from China’s affected areas; Time to collaborate on Nosode therapy (Exports of masks banned on 31st January by Indian Government)

Action:  Feb 1st: Ibrahim Mohamed Solih thanked India for the evacuation of seven Maldivian nationals from the coronavirus-hit Chinese city of Wuhan. India evacuated 647 people

[On 30th Jan, India banned gloves, PPE and masks but on 8th lifted the ban on surgical masks/disposable masks and all gloves except NBR gloves. All other personal protection equipment, including N-95 and equipment accompanying masks and gloves shall remain banned.]

  1. 27th Jan: History of anti-fever drugs should be taken at airports
  2. 28th Jan: Do research on Nosodes
  3. 29th Jan: Closure of live markets all over the world, India should take lead
  4. 30th Jan: Paid flu leave, surgical mask at public places, N 95 for healthcare providers
  5. 31st Jan: Respiratory hygiene advisory to schools, Pan-India task force to be made 
  6. 1st Feb: Disaster Budget is the need of the hour
  7. 3rd Feb: 100 crore budget for COVID-19; Private labs to be recognized; one dedicated COVID-19 National help line, MTNL BSNL to have a line of advisory in their bills; isolation wards to be single rooms or two beds separated with six feet distance; national insurance to cover cost of treatment; Sea ports to have same precautions; price caps for masks, and gloves; National droplet control program; clarification that import of goods is not risky And suspend AI flights to China and Hong Kong 

[Feb 4 - Air India suspended flight services to Hong Kong until March 28. Earlier, Air India had cancelled its flight to Shanghai from January 31 to February 14; 5th Feb - The Ministry of Defence is setting up 10 new laboratories across the country, primarily to conduct research on viruses]

[14th Feb: Japan is set to allocate $140 million to fight coronavirus. The government will earmark 15.3 billion yen (approximately $140 million) for emergency measures, which include strengthening testing and medical treatment capacity, increasing mask production to more than 600 million a month, and credits for small and medium-sized businesses affected by the outbreak].

  1. 4th Feb: Kerala travel advisory needed [The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare issued a fresh travel advisory on Monday urging people to refrain from visiting China]
  2. 5th Feb: PM should talk about COVID-19 in Man Ki Baat or a special address
  3. 6th Feb: Time to have makeshift bed policy to tackle deaths in Kota, Muzaffarpur and COVID-19 cases [Uttarakhand to set up two dedicated hospitals to tackle coronavirus : https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/uttarakhand-to-set-up-two-dedicated-hospitals-to-tackle-coronavirus/story-NYxBOw6XHTbugznTWa3CXK.html]
  4. 7th Feb: IPC 270 should be applicable to COVID-19
  5. 8th Feb: Teleconsultation should be allowed for flu and COVID-19 consultation
  6. 9th Feb: Schools should start droplet prevention program
  7. 10th Feb: How to handle pharma freebee
  8. 11th Feb: IMR should be classified as preventable vs. non-preventable
  9. 12th Feb: Swatchh Bharat should include COVID-19 prevention

Dr KK Aggarwal

President CMAAO, HCFI and Past National President IMA

Inputs: Dr Rajan Sharma, Dr R V Asokan, Dr KK Kalra, Dr Sushil Kumar, Dr Anita Arora, Dr Upasana Arora, Dr SS Srivastava, Dr Shilpi Khanna, Ms Swati, Dr Rahiul Shukla, Dr Arti Verma, Dr Anil Kumar, Dr G S Gyani, Dr Sonal Saxena, Dr CM Bhagat, Dr Vikas Manchanda, Dr Nandani Sharma, Dr Suneela Garg, Dr TK Joshi, Dr Mamta Jajoo, Dr Shariga Qureshi, Dr Ma<

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