Immunity

Researchers have warned that another rise in Covid-19 cases in India may arrive as soon as in August. This third wave may peak with less than 100,000 infections a day in the best-case scenario or about 150,000/day in the worst scenario. 

Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur respectively along with other researchers reported that the surge in Covid-19 cases can push the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic, probably to peak in October. Mr. Vidyasagar M. further warns that the states with high Covid-19 cases, like Kerala and Maharashtra, can “skew the picture.”

The third wave of Covid-19 in India, may not be as brutal as the second wave when the country reported 4,00,000-plus cases/day which decreased gradually. This prediction of the researchers, who accurately forecasted the lessening of the surge in Covid-19 cases earlier this year, sees a mathematical foundation.

Mr. Vidyasagar M. in May predicted India’s coronavirus outbreak to peak in the coming days based on the mathematical model. Determining as per current projections, he said that India could hit 20,000 cases/day by the end of June, which can be revised as needed. 

However, Vidyasagar’s team′s prediction in April, that the wave would peak by the middle of last month proved to be incorrect. He explained that it was because of incorrect parameters as the pandemic was changing rapidly, even wildly, until about a week ago.

India is again witnessing an increase in the daily COVID-19 infection cases and the Centre has cautioned 10 states, including Kerala, Maharashtra and northeastern regions, amid the rising infections and, has urged them to take steps to arrest the spread of the coronavirus.

Further, experts have warned that the Delta variant of the coronavirus can spread as rapidly as chickenpox and can even be passed on by vaccinated people, which can fuel the surge. 

According to data from the Indian Sars-CoV-2 Genomic Consortium (INSACOG), the highly infectious Delta variant of the coronavirus is responsible for nearly 8 of every 10 Covid-19 cases in May, June and July.