The leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide is Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Many people have risk concerns associated with NAFLD, but the majority do not develop advanced liver disease: cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, or hepatocellular carcinoma. Classifying people at high risk of facing these complications is significant in order to prevent disease progression. This analysis produces the evidence on metabolic risk factors and their potential to forecast liver disease outcomes in the general population at risk of NAFLD or diagnosed with NAFLD.

In a methodical review of population-based cohort studies, 14 studies were involved in the meta-analysis of obesity (BMI > 30 kg/m2) as a predictive factor, providing data on 19.3 million individuals surveyed for a median of 13.8 years (IQR 9.0 to 19.8) undergoing 49,541 liver events. Obesity was related to an uncertain increase in risk of incident severe liver disease outcomes (adjusted HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12-1.28, p < 0.001, I2 87%). Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus is connected with more than 2-fold increase in the risk of developing severe liver disease.

Source: PLoS Med, 2020 Apr 30;17(4):e1003100. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003100. eCollection 2020 Apr.