Recent development of risk-prediction models for incident hypertension.


Dr KK Aggarwal    09 November 2017

Hypertension is a leading global health threat and a major cardiovascular disease. A new study published in PLoS One aimed to devise a diagnostic prediction model to identify patient populations at high risk for hypertension. This study entailed searches from PubMed and Embase databases for eligible reports of either prediction models or risk scores of hypertension. Among these 26 studies reporting 48 prediction models were selected. The findings showed that 20 reports studied the established models using traditional risk factors such as body mass index BMI age smoking blood pressure BP level parental history of hypertension and biochemical factors. On the other hand 6 reports used genetic risk score GRS as the prediction factor. From the results it was inferred that traditional models are still the predominant risk prediction models for hypertension but recently more models have begun to incorporate genetic factors as part of their model predictors. However these genetic predictors need to be well selected. It was stated that the current reported models have acceptable to good discrimination and calibration ability but whether the models can be applied in clinical practice still needs more validation and adjustment.

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