A month back, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced a total lockdown of the country a month ago, there were approximately 500 coronavirus cases in India. However, there were clear indications that the number of cases were going to increase. The average daily increase in cases was 21.6% on 24th March, which has dropped to 8.1%. If the cases would have grown at that rate, the number of confirmed cases would have crossed 2 lakh by now.

A growth rate of 8.1% three days into the 5th week of lockdown is higher than the worst-hit countries that have achieved after lockdown for the same period. Germany had brought down the growth rate to 2%, whereas the US was at 4.8%.

If the number of cases in India continues to grow at the present rate, then there will be approximately 40,000 cases by the end of next week. This can increase up to 70,000 in a fortnight, and can also near 2.5 lakh by May end.

Few states in India have managed to lower their growth rate. Kerala has the growth rate of 1.8%, which is lower than Germany. The average growth rate can reduce in the coming days, if the proper precautions are taken.

A small reduction makes a huge alteration to the total numbers of cases. For example, if India manages to bring down the growth rate to 6%, then a month later, it has to deal with approximately 1.3 lakh cases. And at 5% rate, the total number of cases will not even cross one lakh.

Source: ET Healthworld