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World COVID Meter 2nd June - 213 Countries affected: Wear mask at home |
Editorial
eMediNexus Coverage from: 
World COVID Meter 2nd June - 213 Countries affected: Wear mask at home

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Cases: 1M April 2, 2M April 15, 3M April 27, 4M May 8, 5M May 20, 6M May 30 

Ground Zero: Wuhan - in live animal market or cafeteria for animal pathogens: 10th January; Total cases are based on RT PCR, 67% sensitivity

Doubling time India 15.4 days, USA 33 days, Brazil 13 days, Russia 18 days, Spain 47 days, UK 35 days, Italy 55 days, France 49 days, Turkey 37 days

Likely minimum deaths (377407 + 53402 x 15 = 8010) = 385417   

Deaths will cross 400K in one week

Coronavirus Cases: 6,365,627

Deaths: 377,407

Recovered: 2,903,429

ACTIVE CASES: 3,084,791

Currently Infected Patients 3,031,389 (98%) in Mild Condition

53,402 (2%) Serious or Critical

CLOSED CASES: 3,280,836

Cases which had an outcome: 2,903,429 (88%) Recovered/Discharged

377,407 (12%) Deaths

816.2 cases per million population (India 144) 

48.4 deaths per million population (India 4)

India Doubling Time: 15.4 Days. India to cross 200K and Delhi 20K today

 

Country,

Other

Total

cases

New

cases

Total

deaths

Total

recovered

Active

cases

Serious,

Critical

Tot cases/

1 M pop

Deaths/

1M pop

Total

tests

Tests/

1M pop

Population

1

India

198,370

+7,761

5,608

95,754

97,008

8,944

144

4

3,837,207

2,783

1,378,900,337

 

Total:

6,362,300

+103,050

377,155

2,900,149

3,084,996

53,407

816.2

48.4

   

28 Days

Date

Daily new cases

New Deaths

Total cases

Total Deaths

1st June

7761

200

198370

5608

31st May

8782 

223

190609

5408

30th May

8336

205

181827

5185

29th May

8105

269

173491

4980

28th May

7300

177

165386

4711

27th May

7293

190

158086

4534

26th May

5843

172

150793

4344

25th May

6414

148

144950

4172

24th May

7113

156

138536

4024

23rd May

6629

142

131423

3868

22nd May

6568

142

124794

3726

21st May

6198

150

118226

3584

20th May

5553

132

112028

3434

19th May

6147

146

106475

3302

18th May

4630

131

100328

3156

17th May

5050

154

95698

3025

16th May

4864

118

90648

2781

15th May

3787

104

85784

2753

14th May

3942

98

81997

2649

13th May

3763

136

78055

2551

12th May

3524

121

74292

2415

11th May

3607

82

70,768

2294

10th May

4353

111

67161

2212

9th May

3113

116

62808

2101

8th May

3344

96

59695

1985

7th May

3364

104

56351

1889

6th May

3587

92

52987

1785

5th May

2963

127

49400

1693

 India in top 7, will be in top six and cross Italy by 5th June

#

Country,

Other

Total

Cases

New

Cases

Total

Deaths

New

Deaths

Total

Recovered

Active

Cases

Serious,

Critical

Tot Cases/

1M pop

Deaths/

1M pop

Total

Tests

Tests/

1M pop

Population

 

World

6,362,300

+103,050

377,155

+3,017

2,900,149

3,084,996

53,407

816

48.4

   

1

USA

1,859,323

+22,153

106,925

+730

615,416

1,136,982

16,949

5,620

323

18,150,053

54,859

330,848,770

2

Brazil

529,405

+14,556

30,046

+732

211,080

288,279

8,318

2,492

141

930,013

4,378

212,438,640

3

Russia

414,878

+9,035

4,855

+162

175,877

234,146

2,300

2,843

33

10,923,108

74,852

145,929,678

4

Spain

286,718

+209

27,127

 

196,958

62,633

617

6,133

580

4,063,843

86,921

46,753,394

5

UK

276,332

+1,570

39,045

+111

N/A

N/A

1,559

4,072

575

4,285,738

63,158

67,857,854

6

Italy

233,197

+200

33,475

+60

158,355

41,367

424

3,857

554

3,910,133

64,664

60,468,537

7

India

198,370

+7,761

5,608

+200

95,754

97,008

8,944

144

4

3,837,207

2,783

1,378,900,337

India predictions

  1. >90% of people are symptomatic within 2 weeks of infection.
  2. Death rate is deaths today vs. number of cases today.
  3. Corrected death rate is deaths today vs. number of cases 14 days back.
  4. For one symptomatic test positive case, there are 10-30 asymptomatic cases.
  5. Number of deaths = Reported deaths x 2
  6. Number of deaths today should be 15% of the serious patients present 14 days back.
  7. Undocumented cases for each documented case - Iceland: 1: 2; Germany: 1: 5; New York City grocery store shoppers: 1: 10;California 1.5%.
  8. Amongst active cases, 2.37% are serious, 1.82% need oxygen, and 0.41% need ventilator support.

Extra Reading Background Material

  1. China: Captured tiny droplets of viral genetic markers in 2 hospitals in Wuhan floating for > 2 hours. Infectivity? [Journal Nature]
  2. India: In states with average population density of 1185/sq km, the average number of cases were 2048. On the contrary, in states with population density of 909/sq km, the number of cases were 56. When Chandigarh and Pondicherry were taken out from this group, the Average Density of other states were 217 and the average number of cases were 35. [HCFI]
  3. Revised COVID Sutras: It’s a COVID-19 pandemic due to SARS 2 Beta-coronaviruses (different from SARS 1 where spread was only in serious cases); with three virus sequences floating (one similar to Wuhan, second similar to Iran and the third strain similar to USA – UK); has affected up to 10%  (5.7%  S Korea) of the population; Causes Mild or Asymptomatic Illness in 82%, Moderate to Severe Illness in 15%, Critical Illness in 3% and Death in 2.3% cases (15% of admitted serious cases, 71% with comorbidity< Male > Females); affects all but Predominantly Males (56%, 87% aged 30-79, 10% Aged < 20, 3% aged > 80); with Variable Incubation Period days (2-14; mean 5.2 days);  Mean Time to Symptoms 5 days;  Mean Time to Pneumonia 9 days, Mean Time to Death 14 days,  Mean Time to CT changes 4 Days, Reproductive Number R0 1.5 to 3  (Flu 1.2 and SARS 2), Epidemic Doubling Time 7.5 days; Origin Possibly from Bats (Mammal); Spreads via Human to Human Transmission via Large and Small Droplets and Surface to Human Transmission via Viruses on Surfaces for up to three days. Enters through MM of eyes, nose or mouth and the spike protein gets attached to the ACE2 receptors.ACE2 receptors make a great target because they are found in organs throughout our bodies (heart muscle, CNS, kidneys, blood vessels, liver) Once the virus enters, it turns the cell into a factory, making millions of copies of itself, which are then breathed or coughed out and infect others.
  4. Prevalence:New York: 13.9%; New York City at 21.2%; S Korea 5.7%; World 5%; Ohio prison: 73% of inmates; New York: 21% mortality [April 22 in JAMA].
  5. Viral particles seen in tears, stool, kidneys, liver, pancreas, heart, semen, peritoneal fluid, CSF.
  6. Thrombosis: University of Pennsylvania reports that clots are seen in patients even on blood thinners.
  7. Other human beta-coronaviruses have immunity lasting only for one year with no IMMUNITY PASSPORT.
  8. In absence of interventions, prolonged or intermittent social distancing (till 2022-24) is key.
  9. Low levels of cross immunity from the other beta-coronaviruses against SARS-CoV-2 could make SARS-CoV-2 appear to fade away, only to return after a few years. Surveillance is needed till 2024.
  10. During peak - trace and treat - and after the peak - trace and treat the close contacts.
  11. Increased spread: close environment, crowded place with close physical contacts with no ventilation
  12. Strategies: From community mitigation to individual containment; broader good over individual autonomy; perfect cannot be the enemy of the good; pandemics are fought on the grounds and not the hospitals. Treat the patient and not the test report; Consider every surface and every asymptomatic person as virus carrier.
  13. HCW: Direct patient exposure time < 30 minutes; 7 days work and 7 days holidays.
  14. Italy: mortality reduced when they were short of ventilators.
  15. Hospital at HOME: CHF, mild pneumonia, exacerbations of asthma and COPD, cellulitis, and urinary tract infections.
  16. Great Imitator (protean manifestation).
  17. IgM can be false positive in pregnancy, immunological diseases; Pooled tests (< 5) when seroprevalence is <2%.
  18. Early treatment is needed to reduce the viral load and prevent cytokine storm using off label use of drugs like hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin; ivermectin, remdesivir; Tocilizumab interleukin (IL)-6 receptor inhibitor; convalescent plasma therapy (given early; bridge compassionate therapy, donor 14 days symptoms free, single donation can help 4 patients), Lopinavir-ritonavir and Favipiravir.
  19. Hypoxia: Low flow oxygen < 6l/mt, titrated to high flow oxygen using non rebreathing mask, Venti mask, HFNC and helmet CPAP, NAV in supine or prone position.
  20. Early intubation with prone ventilation only if progressive. Hypoxia (walking dead) have capillary problem and not alveoli.
  21. Formulas: Deaths in symptomatic cases 1%; Deaths X 100 = expected number of symptomatic cases; Cases after seven days: Cases today x 2 (doubling time 7 days); Cases expected in the community: Number of deaths occurring in a five-day period and estimate the number of infections required to generate these deaths based on a 6.91% case fatality rate; Compare that to the number of new cases actually detected in the five-day period. This can then give us an estimate of the total number of cases, confirmed and unconfirmed; Lock down effect = Reduction in cases after average incubation period (5 days); Lock down effect in reduction in deaths: On day 14 (time to death); Requirements of ventilators on day 9: 3% of number of new cases detected;  Requirement of future oxygen on day seven: 15% of total cases detected today;  Number of people which can be managed at home care: 80% of number of cases today;  Requirements of ventilators: 3% of Number of cases today;  Requirement of oxygen beds today: 15% of total cases today.

Dr KK Aggarwal

President CMAAO, HCFI and Past National President IMA

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