On 6th August, India’s total number of COVID-19 cases in the country brokethrough the significant two-million mark. On the Union health ministry’s website, the total number of coronavirus cases amounted to 2,027,074. Out of this, 607,384, approximately 30% are currently active whereas 1,378,105 patients have recovered and 41,585 patients have died. In the past 24 hours, 62,538 fresh cases were reported based on approximately 6.4 lakh tests.

The total number of COVID-19 cases had reached one million on 17thJuly that means the current doubling time is around three weeks. On 27th July, three weeks after the national lockdown ended in containment zones and restrictions had eased in non-containment zones, India’s growth rate of the number of cases has been found to be the highest in the world. Amongst the countries with more than 300,000 cases, India’s doubling time was only higher than South Africa (i.e. 21 days vs 19 days), even though India had over a million cases by then.

It is still not clear when India’s coronavirus epidemic is projected to peak. Several models have predicted different interventions as a result. One preprint paper has claimed on 12thJuly that the epidemic would peak around November 2020. However, the Indian Council of Medical Research whose financial support the study had accredited, has distanced itself from the results.

At the present time, a few sero-prevalence surveys have indicated that India’s COVI-19 case load might be much higher. Most of the survey reports have not yet been placed in the public domain for independent analysis. An investigation by The Wire Science had found that evidence of widespread fatality undercounting throughout the country. Doctors have stated that the fatality rate that is reported by the government does not match the global average rate.

Overall, there is general suspicion among experts that India’s official records might be underreporting deaths due to COVID-19. Also, public health experts and epidemiologists have speculated that the public healthcare, testing and quarantining approacheshave not captured everyone with the virus.In May,Dr T. Jacob John told The Wire that India might haveapproximately 400 million cases by the time the epidemic is gone.

On 7thAugust, there were 62,538 new cases and 49,769 recoveries in the last 24 hours. The government still continues to deny community transmission is happening. Though, experts including former ICMR chief scientist Raman R. Gangakhedkar had admitted that it might be happening in few pockets, such as in Mumbai and Delhi.

The national epidemic is projected to peak when the total number of new cases starts to drop steadilywhereas the number of recoveries may continue to rise. Meanwhile, scientists and drug-makers are trying to find a drug that reduces mortality in patients at higher risk of death due to COVID-19. A vaccine might protect uninfected people from contracting an infection.

Many efforts have also fuelled suspicion of procedural irregularities. Examples are ICMR’s demand for faster clinical trials for Bharat Biotech’s COVAXIN vaccine and the Drug Controller General of India’s decision to ignore phase III trials of Biocon’s Itolizumab drug.

Source: The Wire