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Hi, help us enhance your experience
Hi, help us enhance your experience
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Dr KK Aggarwal 10 October 2020
Cases: 1M April 2, 2M April 15, 3M April 27, 4M May 8, 5M May 20, 6M May 30, 7M June 7, 8M June 15, 9M June 22, 10M June 29th, 11M July 4, 12M July 8, 13M July 13, 14M July 17, 15M July 23, 16M July 25, 17M July 29, 18M August 1, 19M August 6, 20M August 10, 21M August 16, 22M August 19, 23M August 21, 24M August 27, 25M August 30, 26M September 3, 27M September 7, 28M September 10, 29M September 14, 30M September 18, 31M September 21, 32M September 23, 33M September 28, 34M October 1, 35M October 4, 36M October 8
Ground Zero: Wuhan - in live animal market or cafeteria for animal pathogens: 10th January; Total cases are based on RT PCR, 67% sensitivity
Coronavirus Cases: 37,099,134
Deaths: 1,072,605
Recovered: 27,890,943
ACTIVE CASES 8,135,586
Currently Infected Patients 8,067,176 (99%) in Mild Condition
68,410 (1%) Serious or Critical
CLOSED CASES 28,963,548
Cases which had an outcome: 27,890,943 (96%) Recovered / Discharged
1,072,605 (4%) Deaths
# | Country,Other | TotalCases | NewCases | TotalDeaths | NewDeaths | TotalRecovered | ActiveCases |
World | 37,093,523 | +353,706 | 1,072,158 | +5,748 | 27,885,855 | 8,135,510 | |
1 | 7,894,478 | +60,558 | 218,648 | +910 | 5,064,300 | 2,611,530 | |
2 | 6,977,008 | +73,196 | 107,450 | +929 | 5,985,505 | 884,053 | |
3 | 5,057,190 | +27,651 | 149,692 | +658 | 4,433,595 | 473,903 | |
4 | 1,272,238 | +12,126 | 22,257 | +201 | 1,009,421 | 240,560 | |
5 | 894,300 | +8,121 | 27,495 | +164 |
India
India-USA New cases per day: 12638 difference
Total difference: 917470
Deaths Crossed 100,000 on 3rd October
Doubling time 41 days
9th October: New Cases 73196, New Deaths 929, Total Cases 6977008, Total Deaths 107450, Active Cases 884053
8th October: New Cases 70824, New Deaths 967, Total Cases 6903812, Total Deaths 106521
7th October: New Cases 78809, New Deaths 963, Total Cases 6832988, Total Deaths 105554, Active Cases 902972
6th October: New Cases 72106, New Deaths 991, Total Cases 6754179, Total Deaths 104591, Active Cases 908335
5th October: New cases 59893, New Deaths 886, Total cases 6682073, Total Deaths 103600, Active Cases 919363
4th October: New cases 74767, New Deaths 902, Total Cases 6622180, Total Deaths 102714, Active cases 936013
3rd October: New Cases 75479, New Deaths 937, Total cases 6547413, Total Deaths 101812
2nd October: New cases 79974, New Deaths 1071, Total Cases 6471934, Total Deaths 100875
1st October: New Cases 81693, New Deaths 1096, Total Cases 6391960, Total Deaths 99804
30th September: New Cases 86748, New Deaths 1179, Total Cases 6310267, Total Deaths 98708
29th September: New cases 97529, New Deaths 1178, Total Cases 6223519, Total Deaths 97529
28th September: New cases 69671, New Deaths 777, Total Cases 6143019, Total Deaths 96351
27th September: New Cases 82767, New Deaths 1040, Total Cases 6073348, Total Deaths 95574
26th September: New cases 89010, New Deaths 1124, Total Cases 5990581, Total Deaths 94534
25th September: New cases 85468, New Deaths 1093, Total Cases 5901571, Total Deaths 93410
24th September: New Cases 85919, New Deaths 1144, Total cases 5816103, Total Deaths 92317
23rd September: New cases 89688, New Deaths 1152, Total Cases 5730184, Total Deaths 91173
22nd September: New cases 80391, New Deaths 1056, Total Cases 5640496, Total Deaths 90021
21st September: New Cases 74493, New Deaths 1056, Total Cases 5560105, Total Deaths 88965
20th September: New cases 87382, New deaths 1135, Total Cases 5485612, Total Deaths 87909
19th September: New cases 92755, New deaths 1149, Total cases 5398230, Total Deaths 86774
18th September: New cases 92789, New Deaths 122, Total Cases 5305475, Total Deaths 85625
17th September: New cases 96793, New Deaths 1174, Total cases 5212686, Total Deaths 84404
16th September: New cases 97859, New Deaths 1139, Total cases 5115893, Total Deaths 83230
15th September: New cases 91120, New Deaths 1283, Total Cases 5018-34, Total Deaths 82091
14th September: New cases 81911, New Deaths 1054, Total Cases 4926914, Total Deaths 80808
13th September: New cases 93215, New Deaths 1140, Total Cases 4845003, Total Deaths 79754
12th September: New cases 94409, New Deaths 1108, Total Cases 4751788, Total Deaths 78614
11th September: New cases 97654, New Deaths 1202, Total Cases 4657379, Total Deaths 77506
10th September: New cases 96760, New Deaths 1213, Total Cases 4559725, Total Deaths 76304
9th September: New cases 95529, New Deaths 1168, Total Cases 4462965, Total Deaths 75091
8th September: New cases 89852, New Deaths 1107, Total Cases 4367436, Total Deaths 73923
7th September: New Cases 75022, New Deaths 1129, Total cases 4277584, Total Deaths 72816
6th September: New cases 91723, New Deaths 1008, Total Cases 4202562, Total Deaths 71687
5th September: New cases 90600, New deaths 1044, Total Cases 4110839, Total Deaths 70679
4th September: New cases 87115, New deaths 1066, Total Cases 4020239, Total Deaths 69635
3rd September: New Cases 84156, New Deaths 1083, Total Cases 3933124, Total Deaths 68569
2nd September: New Cases 82860, New Deaths 1026, Total cases 3848968 Total Deaths 67486
1st September: New cases 78169, New Deaths 1025, Total cases 3766108, Total deaths 66460
31st August: New cases 68770, New Deaths 818, Total cases 3687939, Total deaths 65435
30th August: New cases 79457, New Deaths 960, Total cases 3619169, Total deaths 64617
29th August: New Cases 78472 New Deaths 944 Total cases 3539712 Total deaths 63657
28th August: New Cases 76665, New Deaths 1019, Total cases 3461240, Total deaths 62713
India predictions
Facts
DENSITY: India: In states with average population density of 1185/sq km, the average number of cases were 2048. On the contrary, in states with population density of 909/sq km, the number of cases were 56. When Chandigarh and Pondicherry were taken out from this group, the Average Density of other states were 217 and the average number of cases were 35. [HCFI]
COVID Sutra: COVID-19 pandemic is due to SARS 2 Beta-coronaviruses (different from SARS 1 where spread was only in serious cases); with over eleven virus sequences floating; has affected up to 22.8% of Delhi population, Causes Mild or Atypical Illness in 82%, Moderate to Severe Illness in 15%, Critical Illness in 3% and Death in 2.3% cases (15% of admitted serious cases, 71% with comorbidity< Male > Females); affects all but Predominantly Males (56%, 87% aged 30-79, 10% Aged < 20, 3% aged > 80); with Variable Incubation Period days (2-14; mean 5.2 days); Mean Time to Symptoms 5 days; Mean Time to Pneumonia 9 days, Mean Time to Death 14 days, Mean Time to CT changes 4 Days, Reproductive Number R0 1.5 to 3 (Flu 1.2 and SARS 2), Epidemic Doubling Time 7.5 days; Origin Possibly from Bats (Mammal); Spreads via Human to Human Transmission via Large and Small Droplets and Surface to Human Transmission via Viruses on Surfaces for up to three days. Enters through MM of eyes, nose or mouth and the spike protein gets attached to the ACE2 receptors. ACE2 receptors make a great target because they are found in organs throughout our bodies (heart muscle, CNS, kidneys, blood vessels, liver). Once the virus enters, it turns the cell into a factory, making millions of copies of itself, which are then breathed or coughed out and infect others.
The most important
Numbers to remember
Other Sutras
Formulas and Predictions
Deaths
Prediction Metrics
Is based on what is known about a disease and how peoples actions may affect that.
The latest forecasts state the U.S. will reach nearly 317,000 deaths by December 1, at the current rate of mask-wearing, which currently is slightly below 50% nationally and increasing mask wearing in public to 95% could save over 67,000 lives. Forecasts are not fixed but change depending on public behavior. When people learn that new cases are rising, they start wearing masks and using social distancing again; and when they realize that fresh cases are dropping, they tend to drop their guard. IHME makes use of real-time infection data from Johns Hopkins Universitys Coronavirus Resource Center to represent disease transmission and estimate how many Americans will die. The researchers then estimate how many Americans are wearing masks or using social distancing, which can modulate the final model.
The rate of infection in a population is based on the "R0," or reproduction number. R0 represents the average number of people who will contract the infection from a single infected person, in a population thats never been witness to the disease before. If R0 is 3, it suggests that one case will create an average of three new cases. When that transmission rate of infection occurs at a specific time, its called an "effective R," or "Rt." R0 less than 1 means the epidemic is under control; and when its higher than 1, it is still spreading.
IHME found the "effective R over 1 in Oklahoma. In all other states the effective R is less than 1.”
Infrastructure Capacity
Get number of deaths occurring in a five-day period
Estimate the number of infections required to generate these deaths based on the country or area case fatality rate
Compare that to the number of new cases actually detected in the five-day period.
This can then give us an estimate of the total number of cases, confirmed and unconfirmed
Dr KK Aggarwal
President CMAAO, HCFI and Past National President IMA
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