Coronavirus Live Count Map India
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COVID-19 Vaccine Updates
Acute manageableimmunogenic thrombogenic inflammatory contagious novel viral disease pandemic
Dr KK Aggarwal, President CMAAO, HCFI and Past National President IMA
Cases: 1M April 2, 2M April 15, 3M April 27, 4M May8, 5M May 20, 6M May 30, 7M June 7, 8M June 15, 9M June 22, 10M June 29th, 11MJuly 4, 12M July 8, 13M July 13, 14M July 17, 15M July 23, 16M July 25, 17MJuly 29, 18M August 1, 19M August 6, 20M August 10, 21M August 16, 22M August19, 23M August 21, 24M August 27, 25M August 30, 26M September 3, 27M September7, 28M September 10, 29M September 14, 30M September 18, 31M September 21, 32MSeptember 23, 33M September 28, 34M October 1, 35M October 4, 36M October 8, 37MOctober 11, 38M October 14, 39M October 17, 40M October 19, 41M October 22, 42MOctober 24, 43M October 26, 44M October 28, 45M October 30, 46M November 2, 47MNovember 4, 48M November 6, 49M November 7, 50M November 8, 51M November 10,52M November 12, 53M November 14, 54M November 15, 55M November 17, 56MNovember 19, 57M November 20, 58M November 22, 59M November 24, 60M November25, 61M November 27, 62M November 29, 63M December 1, 64M December 2, 65MDecember 4, 66M December 6, 67M December 7, 68M December 9, 69M December 10,70M December 12, 71M December 13, 72M December 14, 73M December 15, 74MDecember 17, 75M December 19, 76M December 20, 77M December 22, 78M December23, 79M December 26, 80M December 27, 81M December 29, 82M December 30, 83M December31, 84M January 2, 85M January 4, 86M January 6, 87M January 7, 88M January 8,89M January 9, 90M January 10, 91M January 12, 92M January 14, 93M January 15,94M January 17, 95M January 18, 96M January 20, 97M January 21, 98M January 23,99M January 25, 100M January 26, 101M January 29, 102M January 30, 103MFebruary 1, 104M February 4, 105M February 6, 106M February 8, 107M February11, 108M February 13, 109M February 16, 110M February 18, 111M February 21,112M February 24
Ground Zero: Wuhan - inlive animal market or cafeteria for animal pathogens: 10th January; Total cases are based onRT PCR, 67% sensitivity
Variants - B 1.1.7UK, B.1.351South Africa, P1 Brazil
B.1.1.7 lineage (20I/501Y.V1 VOC202012/01): Thisvariant carries a mutation in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spikeprotein at position 501; asparagine (N) has been replaced with tyrosine (Y) atthis position. The mutation is also termed as N501Y. This variant also carries othermutations, including -
· 69/70 deletion:spontaneously occurred several times; possibly results in a conformationalchange in the spike protein;
· P681H:spontaneously occurred several times; near the S1/S2 furin cleavage site.
The variant is tied to heightenedtransmissibility (more efficient and rapid transmission). In January this year,scientists from Britain pointed that the B.1.1.7 variant may be linkedwith increased risk of death in comparison with other variants. Early reports donot indicate that the variant affects the severity of disease or vaccineefficacy.
B.1.351 lineage (20H/501Y.V2): This variant carries several mutationsin the spike protein, which include K417N, E484K, N501Y. This variant does not carrythe 69/70 deletion. The variant was first detected in South Africa, in samples asold as from the start of October last year. Cases have been identified outsideof South Africa as well. E484K mutation in this variant may have an impact onneutralization by some polyclonal and monoclonal antibodies.
P.1 lineage (20J/501Y.V3): This variant is a branch off theB.1.1.28 lineage, first identified by the National Institute of InfectiousDiseases (NIID) in Japan among four travelers from Brazil. The samples weretested during routine screening at Haneda airport. This variant has threemutations in the spike protein RBD, including K417T, E484K, and N501Y. Evidenceindicates that some of the mutations in this variant may have an impact on itstransmissibility and antigenic profile, thus affecting the potential ofantibodies produced by a natural infection or vaccine to identify andneutralize the virus.
Some consequences of emerging variants:
· Potential for quicker spread: D614G mutation increases the ability of the virusto spread more quickly compared to the wild-type virus. Laboratoryexperiments have shown that 614G variants propagate more quickly in humanrespiratory epithelial cells, and outperform the 614D viruses. Data alsosuggest that the 614G variant spreads more quickly than viruses without themutation.
· Potential to cause milder or more severe disease in people: The B.1.1.7 variant may be tied to aheightened risk of death compared to other variants.
· Potential to evade detection by viral diagnostic tests: B.1.1.7 has Sgene target failure
· Diminished susceptibility to therapeutic agents like monoclonalantibodies: B.1.1.28
· Potential to evade natural or vaccine-induced immunity: B.1.1.28
Once a large population receives vaccination,immune pressure would likely facilitate and speed up the emergence of suchvariants by selecting for escape mutants.
Currently Infected Patients
in Mild Condition
Serious or Critical
CLOSED CASES 91,638,956
Cases which had an outcome: 89,120,653 (97%) Recovered / Discharged
2,518,303 (3%) Deaths
25th February: New Cases 16568, New deaths 119, TotalCases 11063038, Total Deaths 156861, Active Cases 157418
24th February: New Cases 17144, New Deaths 144, TotalCases 11046470, Total Deaths 156742, Active Cases 153257
23rd February: New Cases 13463, New Deaths 100, TotalCases 11029326, Total Deaths 156598, Active Cases 148584
22nd February: New Cases 10792, New Deaths 80, TotalCases 11015863, Total Deaths 156498, Active Cases 148882
21st February: New Cases 13980, New Deaths 79, TotalCases 11005071, Total Deaths 156418, Active Cases 151639
20th February: New Cases 14315, New Deaths 99, TotalCases 10991091, Total Deaths 156339, Active Cases 147214
19th February: New Cases 14587, New Deaths 117, TotalCases 10976776, Total Deaths 156240,
18th February: Newcases 12643, New Deaths 85, Total Cases 10962189, Total Deaths 156123, ActiveCases 140998
17th February: NewCases 12440, New Deaths 89, Total Cases 10949546, Total Deaths 156038, ActiveCases 138802
16th February: NewCases 11795, New Deaths 109, Total Cases 10937106, Total Deaths 155949, ActiveCases 138254
15th February: NewCases 9139, New Deaths 76, Total Cases 10925311, Total Deaths 155840, ActiveCases 138579
14th February: NewCases 11434, New Deaths 91, Total Cases 10916172, Total Deaths 155764, ActiveCases 141325
13th February: NewCases 12188, New Deaths 85, Total Cases 10904738, Total Deaths 155673, ActiveCases 139277
12th February: NewCases 12137, New Deaths 104, Total Cases 10892550, Total Deaths 155588, ActiveCases 138253
11th February: NewCases 9353, New Deaths 85, Total Cases 10880413, Total Deaths 155484, ActiveCases 137578
10th February: NewCases 12760, New Deaths 119, Total Cases 10871060, Total Deaths 155399, ActiveCases 144032
9th February: New Cases10510, New Deaths 85, Total Cases 10858300, Total Deaths 155280, Active Cases143416
8th February: New Cases8947, New Deaths 81, Total Cases 10847790, Total Deaths 155195, Active Cases145690
7th February: New Cases11673, New Deaths 86, Total Cases 10838843, Total Deaths 155114, Active Cases150653
6th February: New Cases11948, New Deaths 72, Total Cases 10827170, Total Deaths 155028, Active Cases150733
5th February: New cases11689, New Deaths 94, Total Cases 10815222, Total Deaths 154956, Active Cases150476
4th February: New Cases12410, New Deaths 120, Total Cases 10803533, Total Deaths 154862, Active Cases153270
3rd February: New Cases12917, New Deaths 107, Total Cases 10791123, Total Deaths 154742, Active Cases156873
2nd February: New Cases11000, New Deaths 113, Total Cases 10778206, Total Deaths 154635, Active Cases161865
1st February: New Cases8587, New Deaths 94, Total Cases 10767206, Total Deaths 154522, Active Cases165234
31st January: New Cases11528, New Deaths 116, Total Cases 10758619, Total Deaths 152428, Active Cases170203
30th January: New Cases13065, New Deaths 128, Total cases 10747091, Total Deaths 154312, Active Cases170670
29th January: Newcases 13055, New deaths 137, Total Cases 10734026, Total Deaths 154184, Activecases 171968
28th January: New Cases18940, New Deaths 162, Total Cases 10720971, Total Deaths 154047, Active Cases173762
27th January: New Cases11752, New Deaths 134, Total Cases 10702031, Total Deaths 153885, Active Cases175328
26th January: New Cases12569, New Deaths 127, Total Cases 10690279, Total Deaths 153751, Active Cases178200
25th January: NewCases 9036, New Deaths 116, Total Cases 10677710, Total Deaths 153624, ActiveCases 178808
24th January: NewCases 13239, New deaths 132, Total Cases 10668674, Total Deaths 153508, ActiveCases 185992
23rd January: New cases14891, New deaths 155, Total Cases 10655435, Total Deaths 153376, Active Cases185963
22nd January: New Cases14344, New Deaths 154, Total Cases 10640544, Total Deaths 153221, Active Cases187260
21st January: Newcases 14481, New Deaths 161, Total Cases 10626200, Total Deaths 153067, ActiveCases 190976
20th January: New Cases15277, New Deaths 152, Total Cases 10611719, Total Deaths 152906, Active Cases193650
19th January: NewCases 13795, New Deaths 161, Total Cases 10596442, Total Deaths 152754, ActiveCases 198596
18th January: New Cases9975, New Deaths 137, Total Cases 10582647, Total Deaths 152593, Active Cases202202
17th January: New Cases13962, New Deaths 145, Total Cases 10572672, Total Deaths 152456, Active Cases209519
16th January: New Cases15051, New Deaths 181, Total Cases 10558710, Total Deaths 152311, Active Cases210215
15th January: New cases15151, New Deaths 176, Total Cases 10543659, Total Deaths 152130, Active Cases212646
14th January: NewCases 15677, New Deaths 189, Total Cases 10528508, Total Deaths151954, Active Cases 214472
13th January: New Cases17015, New Deaths 201, Total cases 10512831, Total Deaths 151765, Active Cases214812
12th January: Newcases 15903, New Deaths 200, Total Cases 10495816, TotalDeaths 151564, Active Cases 217839
11th January: Newcases 12482, New Deaths 166, Total Cases 10479913, Total Deaths151364, Active Cases 217881
10th January: New cases16085, New Deaths 150, Total cases 10467431, Total Deaths 151198, Active Cases224103
9th January: New Cases18820, New Deaths 213, Total Cases 10451346, Total Deaths 151048, Active Cases224903
8th January: New cases18482, New deaths 229, Total Cases 10432526, Total Deaths 150835, Active Cases225756
7th January: New cases18106, New Deaths 234, Total Cases 10414044, Total Deaths 150606, Active Cases226716
6th January: New Cases20460, New Deaths 221, Total Cases 10395938, Total Deaths 150372, Active Cases229403
5th January: Newcases 17909, New Deaths 265, Total Cases 10375478, Total Deaths150151, Active Cases 228833
4th January: New Cases16278, New Deaths 200, Total Cases 10357569, Total Deaths 149886, Active Cases232343
3rd January: New Cases16660, New Deaths 215, Total Cases 10341291, Total Deaths 149686, Active Cases245474
2nd January: NewCases 21222, New Deaths 266, Total Cases 10324631, TotalDeaths 149471, Active Cases 248633
1st January: New Cases17080, New Deaths 187, Total Cases 10303409, Total Deaths 149205, Active Cases252275
31st December: NewCases 19046, New deaths 244, Total Cases 10286329, Total Deaths 149018, ActiveCases 255525
30th December: Newcases 21957, New deaths 299, Total Cases 10267283, Total Deaths 148774, ActiveCases 258747
29th December: Newcases 20529, New Deaths 285, Total Cases 10245326, Total Deaths 148475, ActiveCases 263512
28th December: NewCases 16072, New Deaths 250, Total Cases 10224797, Total Deaths 148190,Active Cases 269840
27th December: NewCases 20333, New Deaths 281, Total Cases 10208725, Total Deaths 147940, ActiveCases 278840
26th December: NewCases 18574, New Deaths 280, Total Cases 10188392, Total Deaths 147659, ActiveCases 279885
25th December: Newcases 22350, New Deaths 251, Total Cases 10169818, Total Deaths 147379, Active Cases283057
24th December: NewCases 23924, New Deaths 350, Total Cases 10147468, Total Deaths 147128, ActiveCases 283142
23rd December: NewCases 24236, New Deaths 302, Total Cases 10123544, Total Deaths 146778, ActiveCases 284705
22nd December: NewCases 23886, New Deaths 331, Total Cases 10099308, Total Deaths146476, Active Cases 290130
21st December: Newcases 19174, New Deaths 302, Total Cases 10075422, Total Deaths 146145, ActiveCases 293663
20th December: Newcases 24589, New Deaths 330, Total Cases 10056248, Total Deaths 145843, ActiveCases 305015
19th December: NewCases 26834, New Deaths 342, Total Cases 10031659, Total Deaths 145513, ActiveCases 306465
18th December: NewCases 26991, New Deaths 342, Total Cases 10004825, Total Deaths 145171,Active Cases 309731
17th December: Newcases 26762, New deaths 342, Total Cases 9977834, Total Deaths 144829, ActiveCases 312961
16th December: NewCases 18164, New Deaths 357, Total cases 9951072, Total Deaths144487, Active Cases 328922
15th December: Newcases 26401, New Deaths 384, Total Cases 9932908, Total Deaths 144130, ActiveCases 332985
14th December: NewCases 21791, New deaths 353, Total Cases 9906507, Total Deaths 143746, ActiveCases 340929
13th December: NewCases 27336, New Deaths 338, Total Cases 9884716, Total Deaths 143393,Active Cases 353715
12th December: NewCases 30354, New deaths 393, Total Cases 9857380, Total Deaths 143055, ActiveCases 357446
11th December: Newcases 30034, Total cases 9827026, New Deaths 440, Total Deaths 142662, ActiveCases 360572
10th December: NewCases 34666, New deaths 487, Total Cases 9796992, Total Deaths 142222, ActiveCases 364582
9th December: New cases26351, New Deaths 337, Total Cases 9762326, Total Deaths 141735, Active Cases376086
8th December: New Cases32067, New deaths 404, Total cases 9735975, Total Deaths 141398, Active Cases379771
7th December: New Cases27107, New deaths 404, Total Cases 9703908, Total Deaths 140994, Active Cases385269
6th December: NewCases 32272, New Deaths 374, Total Cases 9676801, Total Deaths 140590,Active Cases 398040
5th December: New cases36111, New Deaths 480, Total Cases 9644529, Total Deaths 140216, Active Cases404367
4th December: New Cases36638, New Deaths 509, Total Cases 9608418, Total Deaths 139736, Active Cases410679
3rd December: New Cases38309, New Deaths 570, Total Cases 9571780, Total Deaths 139227, Active Cases416869
2nd December: New Cases33761, New Deaths 498, Total Cases 9533471, Total Deaths 138657, Active Cases424710
1st December: New Cases36456, New deaths 500, Total Cases 9499710, Total Deaths 138159, Active Cases429753
30th November: New Cases 31179,New Deaths 482, Total cases 9463254, Total Deaths 137659, Active Cases 437000
29th November: NewCases 39036, New deaths 444, Total Cases 9432075, Total Deaths 137177, ActiveCases 448585
28th November: NewCases 41815, New Deaths 495, Total Cases 9393039, TotalDeaths 136733, Active Cases 454837
27th November: Newcases 4135 3, New deaths 486, Total Cases 9351224, Total Deaths 136238, ActiveCases 456100
26th November: NewCases 43174, New Deaths 491, Total cases 9309871, Total Deaths 135752, ActiveCases 456410
25th November: NewCases 44699, New Deaths 518, Total Cases 9266697, Total Deaths 135261,Active Cases 453450
24th November: Newcases 44276, New Deaths 489, Total Cases 9221998, Total Deaths 134743,Active Cases 445851
23rd November: Newcases 37410, New Deaths 481, Total cases 9177722, Total Deaths 134254,Active Cases 439893
22nd November: Newcases 44404, New Deaths 510, Total Cases 9140312, Total Deaths 133773,Active Cases 445095
21st November: NewCases 45295, New deaths 499, Total Deaths 9095908, Total Deaths 133263, ActiveCases 442606
20th November: NewCases 46288, New Deaths 562, Total Cases 9050613, Total Deaths 132764, ActiveCases 441952
19th November: NewCases 46182, New Deaths 584, Total Cases 9004325, Total Deaths 132202, ActiveCases 445107
18th November: NewCases 45439, New Deaths 587, Total Cases 8958143, Total Deaths 131618, ActiveCases 444755
17th November: NewCases 38532, New deaths 472, Total Cases 8912704, Total Deaths 131031, ActiveCases 448660
16th November: NewCases 28555, New Deaths 450, Total Cases 8874172, Total Deaths 130559, ActiveCases 455444,
15th November: Newcases 30715, New Deaths 435, Total Cases 8845617 (8.8. Million), Total Deaths130109, Active Cases 467558
14th November: NewCases 41659, New Deaths 449, Total Cases 8814902, Total Deaths 129674, ActiveCases 481491
13th November: Newcases 45343, New Deaths 539, Total Cases 8773243, Total Deaths 129225, ActiveCases 482551
12th November: NewCases 43861, New Deaths 521, Total Cases 8727900, Total Deaths 128686
11th November: NewCases 48285, New Deaths 549, Total Cases 10703056, Total Deaths 128164
10th November: New Cases44679, New Deaths 511, Total Cases 8635754, Total Deaths 127615
9th November: New cases37211, New Deaths 451, Total Cases 8591075, Total Deaths 127104, Active Cases506765
8th November: New Cases46661, New Deaths 491, Total Cases 8553864, Total Deaths 126653, Active Cases511551
7th November: New Cases46318, New deaths 557, Total cases 8507203, Total Deaths 126162, Active Cases513750
6th November: New Cases49851, New Deaths 576, Total Cases 8460885, Total Deaths 125605
5th November: New Cases47622, New Deaths 675, Total Cases 8411034, Total Deaths 125029, Active Cases3335730
4th November: New Cases50465, New Deaths 704, Total Cases 8363412, Total Deaths 124354, Active Cases528428
3rd November: New Cases46033, New Deaths 511, Total Cases 8312947, Total Deaths 123650, Active Cases534540
2nd November: New Cases37592, New Deaths 497, Total Cases 8266914, Total Deaths 123139, ActiveCases 542346
1st November: New Cases46441, New Deaths 493, Total Cases 8229322, Total Deaths 122642, Active Cases563775
31st October: NewCases 46715, New Deaths 468, Total Cases 8136166, Total Deaths 122149,Active Cases 571529
30th October: New Cases48120, New Deaths 550, Total Cases 813666, Total Deaths 121681, Active Cases583574
29th October: New Cases49281, New Deaths 568, Total Cases 8088046, Total Deaths 121131
28th October: New cases49912, New Deaths 509, Total cases 8038765, Total Deaths 120563, Active Cases603251
27th October: New Cases42965, New deaths 519, Total Cases 7988853, Total Deaths 120054, Active Cases611605
26th October: New Cases36838, New deaths 505, Total Cases 7945888, Total Deaths 119535, Active Cases627638
25th October: New Cases45158, New Deaths 463, Total Cases 7909050, Total Deaths 119030, Active Cases656026
24th October: New Cases50224, New Deaths 575, Total Cases 7863892, Total Deaths 118567, Active Cases7075723
23rd October: New Cases54028, New Deaths 656, Total Cases 7813668, Total Deaths 117992, Active Cases682107
22nd October: New Cases54482, New Deaths 683, Total Cases 7759640, Total Deaths 117336, Active Cases695979
21st October: New cases56000, New Deaths 703, Total Cases 7705158, Total Deaths 116653, Active Cases716610
20th October: New Cases54422, New Deaths 714, Total Cases 7649158, Total Deaths 115950, Active Cases740658
19th October: New Cases46498, New Death 594, Total Cases 7594736, Total Deaths 115236, Active Cases748883
18th October: New Cases55511, New Deaths 578, Total Cases 7548238, Total Deaths 114642, Active Cases773701
17th October: New Cases62092, New deaths 1032, Total Cases 7492727, Total Deaths 114064, Active Cases784264
16th October: New Cases65126, New Deaths 886, Total Cases 7430635, Total Deaths 113032, Active Cases795969
1. Deathrate is deaths today vs number of cases today.
2. Correcteddeath rate is deaths today vs number of cases 14 days back.
3. Forone symptomatic test positive case, there are 10-30 asymptomatic cases and 20untested cases.
4. Estimatednumber of deaths = Reported deaths x 2.
5. Numberof deaths today should be 15% of the serious patients present 14 days back.
6. Undocumentedcases for each documented case - Iceland: 1: 2; Germany: 1: 5; New York Citygrocery store shoppers: 1: 10; California: 1.5%.
7.Amongst active cases, 2.37% are serious, 1.82% need oxygen, and 0.41% needventilator support
DENSITY: India: In states withaverage population density of 1185/sq km, the average number of cases were2048. On the contrary, in states with population density of 909/sq km, thenumber of cases were 56. When Chandigarh and Pondicherry were taken out fromthis group, the Average Density of other states were 217 and the average numberof cases were 35. [HCFI]
COVID Sutra: COVID-19 pandemic is due to SARS2 Beta-coronavirus (different from SARS 1 where spread was only in seriouscases); with over eleven virus sequences floating; Causes Mild or AtypicalIllness in 82%, Moderate to Severe Illness in 15%, Critical Illness in 3% and Deathin 2.3% cases (15% of admitted serious cases, 71% with comorbidity< Male> Females); affects all but Predominantly Males (56%, 87% aged 30-79, 10%Aged < 20, 3% aged > 80); with Variable Incubation Period days (2-14;mean 5.2 days); Mean Time to Symptoms 5 days; Mean Time toPneumonia 9 days, Mean Time to Death 14 days, Mean Time to CT changes 4Days, Reproductive Number R0 1.5 to 3 (Flu 1.2 and SARS 2), EpidemicDoubling Time 7.5 days; Origin Possibly from Bats (Mammal); Spreads via Humanto Human Transmission via Large and Small Droplets and Surface to HumanTransmission via Viruses on Surfaces for up to three days. Enters through MM ofeyes, nose or mouth and the spike protein gets attached to the ACE2receptors. ACE2 receptors make a great target because they are found inorgans throughout our bodies (heart muscle, CNS, kidneys, blood vessels, liver).Once the virus enters, it turns the cell into a factory, making millions andmillions of copies of itself — which can then be breathed or coughed out toinfect others.
The most important
1. Masking is THE prevention
2. RT PCR Ct is THE test for diagnosis
3. Zinc is THE Vitamin
4. Day 5 is THE dayin COVID phase for mortality prevention
5. Day 90 is THE day after which the word COVID ends
6. Home Isolation is THE modality ofTreatment
7. 12 years is THE age when themortality starts
8. CRP is THE lab test for seriousness
9. Loss of Smell is THE symptom equal toRT PCR test
10. 15 minutes is THE time to get theinfection.
Numbers to remember
1. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2770945: RDW at admission 14.5%
1. Viralparticles are seen in tears, stool, kidneys, liver, pancreas, heart, semen,peritoneal fluid, CSF.
2. Thrombosis:University of Pennsylvania has reported that clots are seen in patients evenon blood thinners.
3. Otherhuman beta-coronaviruses have immunity lasting only for one year with noIMMUNITY PASSPORT.
4. Inabsence of interventions, prolonged or intermittent social distancing (till2022-24) is the key.
5. Dueto low levels of cross immunity from other beta-coronaviruses againstSARS-CoV-2, the virus may appear to fade away, only to show resurgence after afew years. Surveillance till 2024.
6. Duringpeak, trace and treat, and after the peak, trace and treat the close contacts.
7. Increasedspread: Close environment, crowded place with close physical contacts with noventilation.
8. Strategies:From community mitigation to individual containment; broader good overindividual autonomy; perfect cannot be the enemy of the good; pandemics arefought on the grounds and not the hospitals. Treat the patient and not the testreport; consider every surface and every asymptomatic person as virus carrier.
9. HCW:Direct patient exposure time < 30 minutes; 7 days work and 7 days holidays.
10. Italy:mortality reduced when they were short of ventilators.
11. Hospitalat HOME: CHF, mild pneumonia, exacerbations of asthma and COPD,cellulitis, and urinary tract infections.
12. GreatImitator (protean manifestation).
13. IgMcan be false positive in pregnancy, immunological diseases; Pooled tests(<5, 20 Kerala, 64 Singapore RT PCR) when seroprevalence is <2%.
14. Earlytreatment, day 3-5, to reduce the viral load and prevent cytokine storm.
15. Hypoxia: Low flow oxygen <6l/mt,titrated to high flow oxygen using non rebreathing mask, Venturi mask, HFNC andhelmet CPAP, NIV in supine or prone position.
16. Earlyintubation with prone ventilation only if progressive. Hypoxia (walking dead)have capillary problem and not alveoli.
Formulas and Predictions
1. The goal is to save lives. Monitoringdeaths is important, especially when testing is limited.
2. Daily deaths are the best indicator ofthe progression of the pandemic, although there is generally a 17- to 21-daylag between infection and deaths.
3. Deaths in symptomatic cases: Lessthan one percent (best of the care).
4. Therefore, Deaths X 100 = expectednumber of symptomatic cases
5. Some may count probable or presumptive COVID-19 deaths when casesare not confirmed with a positive test but on the basis of symptoms and medicalhistory. In New York, 3,700 presumptive deaths were added in one day in Aprilwhen testing was limited.
6. Case fatality rate: Number of totaldeaths as on date/number of total RT PCR positive cases as on today
7. Infection fatality rate: Number of totaldeaths as on date/number of total calculated cases as on today
8. Number of reported deaths: Number ofconfirmed deaths x 2
1. The University of Washingtons Institutefor Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME):
Is based on what is known about a disease and how peoples actions mayaffect that.
Forecastsare not fixed but change depending on public behavior. When people learn thatnew cases are rising, they start wearing masks and using social distancingagain; and when they realize that fresh cases are dropping, they tend to droptheir guard. IHME makes use of real-timeinfection data from Johns Hopkins Universitys Coronavirus Resource Center torepresent disease transmission and estimate how many Americans will die. Theresearchers then estimate how many Americans are wearing masks or using socialdistancing, which can modulate the final model.
Therate of infection in a population is based on the "R0," orreproduction number. R0 represents the average number of people who willcontract the infection from a single infected person, in a population thatsnever been witness to the disease before. If R0 is 3, it suggests that one casewill create an average of three new cases. When that transmission rate ofinfection occurs at a specific time, its called an "effective R," or"Rt." R0 less than 1 means theepidemic is under control; and when its higher than 1, it is still spreading.
IHMEfound the "effective R over 1 in Oklahoma. In all other states theeffective R was found to be less than 1.”
2. CDC: Relies on positive tests results.CDCs report these as confirmed cases. The positivity rate suggests how tough oreasy it is to find a case, which is an indicator of both the spread of COVID-19and how widespread testing is. If the rate of positive tests is 20%, onedoesn’t have to look hard to find a case, compared to 1%, which means that onehas to do a lot of tests to get a positive one. The more COVID-19 spreads, thehigher the positivity rate. A 60% positivity rate may suggest that testing isonly being done in a nursing home during an outbreak or a hospital where themost apparent cases are and not the general population where cases may bemilder.
3. Marylands COVID-19 dashboard: It reportsthe daily positivity percentage (percentage of positive tests and total testingvolume since March). While looking at testing, one wants to know how many testswere done historically with the ability to compare and understand if the numberhas increased or declined or is stable and the percentage that is positive.Maryland and Pennsylvania report a 7-day rolling average of the dailypositivity percentages. The 7-day average rate better indicates a trend ascompared to daily numbers.
4. The testing numbers often fluctuate,depending on where testing is done and when the labs report test results. Asudden surge in testing numbers may point to a large number of tests done in agroup setting such as a nursing home or prison on a single day. Laboratoriesand hospitals report test results on weekdays, so the numbers can decline onweekends.
5. A major goal during the coronavirusepidemic has been to flatten the curve to maintain local hospital capacity.After expected COVID-19 surges, many hospitals limited surgeries and admissionsto preserve their resources, including hospital beds, ventilators, andhealthcare personnel.
1. Ifhospital capacity reaches 80%, we may have to stop admitting patients toprevent the hospital from being overwhelmed.
2. Inorder to plan for surges and increase capacity: It is required to know thenumber of people who tested positive and were admitted to the hospital withsymptoms of COVID-19.
3. Pennsylvanias COVID-19 dashboard: has a hospital preparedness page that shows the number of hospitalizedCOVID-19 patients and the number and percentage of available beds by unit,including intensive care, medical/surgical, and airborne isolation.
4. Pennsylvania: Reports the number of ventilators COVID-19 patients andnon-COVID-19 patients use every day.
5. Illinois lists the recovery rate: In Illinois, the recovery rate of 95%is calculated as recovered cases divided by recovered cases plus confirmeddeaths. This indicates the quality of medical care and the severity of disease.
6. Caseswill double after the average doubling time of the country at that time
7. Cases expected in the community:
Get number of deaths occurring in a five-day period
Estimate the number of infections required to generate these deathsbased on the country or area case fatality rate
Compare that to the number of new cases actually detected in thefive-day period.
This can then give us an estimate of the total number of cases,confirmed and unconfirmed
8. Lock down effect = Reduction in cases after average incubation period (5days)
9. Lock down effect in reduction in deaths: Reduction in number of deathson day 14 (average time to death of that country)
10. Requirements of ventilatorson day 9: 1-3% of number of new cases detected
11. Requirement of future oxygen onday 7: 10% of total cases detected today
12. Number of people which can bemanaged at home care: 90% of number of cases today
13. Requirement of ventilators: 1-3%of Number of cases admitted 7-9 days back
14. Requirement of oxygen beds today:10% of total cases admitted seven days back
15. Number of unreported or untestedcases: Number of reported cases x 10-30 (depending on the country, New York 10,Delhi 23.8, Pakistan 30)
16. Number of asymptomatic cases: for6 symptomatic cases, 200 asymptomatic cases (CHINA); (1.78 M tests in HongKong, 32 asymptomatic cases, 10 symptomatic cases)
17. Oxygen requirement on thatday in the hospital at 6am: Number of cases detected to have hypoxia on sixminutes walk test.
Dr KK Aggarwal
President CMAAO, HCFI and Past NationalPresident IMA