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World COVID-19 Meter - 18th May 2021: Acute manageable immunogenic thrombogenic inflammatory contagious novel viral disease pandemic

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eMediNexus    18 May 2021

CMAAO: In susceptible high-risk (pro-inflammatory and/or pro-coagulative) individuals, reactogenic vaccines can trigger transient thrombo-inflammation lasting first few (up to four) days.

COVID Vaccine: non-replicative, non-repetitive dose, spike gene mRNA/spike gene DNA to mRNA/whole killed virus, reactogenic vaccine

Coronavirus Cases: 164,265,717

Deaths: 3,404,144

Recovered: 144,181,046

ACTIVE CASES: 16,680,527

Serious/Critical Cases: 101,702

 

#

Country,Other

TotalCases

NewCases

TotalDeaths

NewDeaths

TotalRecovered

ActiveCases

Serious,Critical

Tot Cases/1M pop

Deaths/1M pop

TotalTests

Tests/1M pop

Population

 

World

164,265,717

+535,405

3,404,144

+10,743

144,181,046

16,680,527

101,702

21,074

436.7

   

1

USA

33,747,439

+25,030

600,533

+369

27,202,309

5,944,597

7,790

101,435

1,805

467,222,796

1,404,331

332,701,437

2

India

25,227,970

+263,045

278,751

+4,340

21,590,003

3,359,216

8,944

18,125

200

316,423,658

227,338

1,391,864,443

3

Brazil

15,661,106

+33,631

436,862

+1,039

14,152,433

1,071,811

8,318

73,223

2,043

47,073,060

220,090

213,881,340

4

France

5,881,137

+3,350

107,812

+196

5,152,566

620,759

4,186

89,926

1,649

81,694,063

1,249,144

65,400,058

5

Turkey

5,127,548

+10,174

44,983

+223

4,961,120

121,445

2,326

60,230

528

51,076,732

599,970

85,132,141

6

Russia

4,949,573

+9,328

116,211

+340

4,563,254

270,108

2,300

33,904

796

133,800,000

916,505

145,989,315

7

UK

4,452,756

+1,979

127,684

+5

4,279,267

45,805

124

65,291

1,872

170,156,171

2,495,025

68,198,176

8

Italy

4,162,576

+3,455

124,296

+140

3,715,389

322,891

1,754

68,935

2,058

63,021,591

1,043,683

60,383,853

9

Spain

3,615,860

+3,621

79,432

+31

3,333,587

202,841

1,836

77,310

1,698

48,928,535

1,046,138

46,770,653

10

Germany

3,608,292

+5,353

86,870

+139

3,300,700

220,722

4,123

42,946

1,034

58,093,759

691,439

84,018,598

(Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

 

India

17th May: New Cases 263045, New Deaths 4340, Total Cases 25227970, Total Deaths 278751, Active Cases 3359216

16th May: New Cases 281860, New Deaths 4092, Total Cases 24964925, Total Deaths 274411, Active Cases 3522905 

15th May: New Cases 310822, New Deaths 4090, Total Cases 24683065, Total Deaths 270319, Active Cases 3623708 

14th May: New Cases 326123, New Deaths 3879, Total Cases 24372243, Total Deaths 266229, Active Cases 3679691 

13th May: New Cases 343288, New Deaths 3999, Total Cases 24046120, Total Deaths 262350, Active Cases 3710403

12th May: New Cases 362406, New Deaths 4126, Total Cases 23702832, Total Deaths 258351, Active Cases 3716045

11th May: New Cases 348499, New Deaths 4200, Total Cases 23340426, Total Deaths 254225, Active Cases 3709551 

10th May: New Cases 329517, New Deaths 3879, Total Cases 22991927, Total Deaths 250025, Active Cases 3720695

9th May: New Cases 366499, New Deaths 3748, Total Cases 22662410, Total Deaths 246146, Active Cases 3750998

8th May: New Cases 409300, New Deaths 4133, Total Cases 22295911, Total Deaths 242398, Active Cases 3742015

7th May: New Cases 401326, New Deaths 4194, Total Cases 21886611, Total Deaths 238265, Active Cases 3731261

6th May: New Cases 414433, New Deaths 3920, Total Cases 21485285, Total Deaths 234071, Active Cases 3653804

5th May: New Cases 412618, New Deaths 3982, Total Cases 21070852, Total Deaths 230151, Active Cases 3571625

4th May: New Cases 382691, New Deaths 3786, Total Cases 20658234, Total Deaths 226169, Active Cases 3493665

3rd May: New Cases 355828, New Deaths 3438, Total Cases 20275543, Total Deaths 222383, Active Cases 3452457

2nd May: New Cases 370059, New Deaths 3422, Total Cases 19919715, Total Deaths 218945, Active Cases 3419032

1st May: New Cases 392562, New Deaths 3688, Total Cases 19549656, Total Deaths 215523, Active Cases 3352361

30th April: New Cases 402110, New Deaths 3522, Total Cases 19157094, Total Deaths 211835, Active Cases 3272256

29th April: New Cases 386888, New Deaths 3501, Total Cases 18754984, Total Deaths 208313, Active Cases 3172906

28th April: New cases 379459, New Deaths 3647, Total Cases 18368096, Total Deaths 204812, Active Cases 3085008

27th April: New Cases 362902, New Deaths 3285, Total Cases 17988637, Total Deaths 201165, Active Cases 2979768 

26th April: New Cases 319435, New Deaths 2764, Total Cases 17625735, Total Deaths 197880, Active Cases 2882513

25th April: New Cases 354531, New deaths 2806, Total Cases 17306300, Total Deaths 195116, Active Cases 2814544

24th April: New cases 349313, New Deaths 2761, Total Cases 16951769, Total Deaths 192310, Active Cases 2681378  

23rd April: New Cases 345147, New deaths 2621, Total cases 16602456, Total Deaths 189549, Active Cases 2550788

22nd April: New cases 332503, New Deaths 2256, Total cases 16257309, Total Deaths 186928, Active Cases 2428775

21st April: New cases 315802, New Deaths 2102, Total cases 15924806, Total Deaths 184672, Active Cases 2290728

20th April: New cases 294290, New Deaths 2020, Total cases 15609004, Total Deaths 182570, Active Cases 2156571

19th April: New Cases 256947, New Deaths 1757, Total Cases 15314714, Total Deaths 180550, Active Cases 2030944

18th April: New cases 275306, New Deaths 1625, Total Cases 15057767, Total Deaths 178793, Active Cases 1800199

17th April: New cases 260778, New Deaths 1495, Total Cases 14782461, Total Deaths 177168, Active Cases 1800199

16th April: New Cases 233943, New Deaths 1338, Total Cases 14521683, Total Deaths 175673, Active Cases 1679121

15th April: New cases 216850, New deaths 1183, Total Cases 14287740, Total Deaths 174335, Active Cases 1569427

14th April: New cases 199569, New deaths 1037, Total Cases 14070890, Total Deaths 173152, Active cases 141592

13th April: New Cases 185248, New Deaths 1026, Total Cases 13871321, Total Deaths 172115, Active Cases 1366518

12th April: New Cases 160694, New Deaths 880, Total Cases 13686073, Total Deaths 171089, Active Cases 1264544

11th April: New cases 169914, New Deaths 904, Total Cases 13525379, Total Deaths 170209, Active Cases 1201456

10th April: New cases 152682, New Deaths 838, Total Cases 13355465, Total Deaths 169305, Active Cases 1107827

9th April: New Cases 144829, New Deaths 773, Total Cases 13202783, Total Deaths 168467, Active Cases 1046376

8th April: New cases 131893, New Deaths 802, Total cases 13057954, Total Deaths 167694, Active Cases 979519

7th April: New Cases 126315, New Deaths 684, Total cases 12926061, Total Deaths 166892, Active Cases 910264

6th April: New Cases 115269, New Deaths 631, Total Cases 12799746, Total Deaths 166208, Active Cases 843,779

5th April: New Cases 96557, New Deaths 445, Total Cases 12684477, Total Deaths 165577, Active Cases 788855

4th April: New Cases 103793, New Deaths 477, Total Cases 12587920, Total Deaths 165132, Active Cases 742830

3rd April: New Cases 92998, New Deaths 514, Total Cases 12484127, Total Deaths 164655, Active Cases 177638

2nd April: New cases 89019, New Deaths 713, Total Cases 12391129 Total Deaths 164141, Active Cases 659928

1st April: New Cases 81441, New Deaths 468, Total Cases 12302110, Total Deaths 163428, Active cases 615798

31st March: New Cases 72182, New Deaths 458, Total Cases 12220669, Total Deaths 162960, Active Cases 585215

30th March: New Cases 53158, New Deaths 355, Total Cases 12148487, Total Deaths 162502, Active Cases 553933

29th March: New Cases 56119, New Deaths 266, Total Cases 12095329, Total Deaths 162147, Active Cases 54235328th March: New Cases 68206, New Deaths 295, Total Cases 12039210, Total Deaths 161881, Active Cases 523602

27th March: New cases 62631, New deaths 311, Total Cases 11971004, Total Deaths 161586, Active Cases 487840

26th March: New cases 62291, New Deaths 292, Total Cases 11908373, Total Deaths 161275, Active Cases 454249

25th March: New Cases 59069, New Deaths 257, Total Cases 11846082, Total Deaths 160983, Active Cases 422596

24th March: New Cases 53419, New Deaths 249, Total Cases 11787013, Total Deaths 160726, Active Cases 396696

23rd March: New Cases 47264, New Deaths 277, Total Cases 11733594, Total Deaths 160477, Active Cases 370101

22nd March: New cases 40611, New Deaths 197, Total Cases 11686330, Total Deaths 160200, Active Cases 347071

21st March: New Cases 47009, New Deaths 213, Total Cases 11645719, Total Deaths 160003, Active Cases 336392

20th March: New Cases 43815, New deaths 196, Total Cases 11598710, Total Deaths 159790, Active cases 310801

19th March: New cases 40950, New Deaths 189, Total Cases 11554895, Total Deaths 159594, Active Cases 290154

18th March: New Cases 39643, New Deaths 155, Total Cases 11513945, Total Deaths 159405, Active Cases 273062

17th March: New Cases 35838, New deaths 171, Total Cases 11474302, Total Deaths 159250, Active Cases 1128238

16th March: New cases 28869, New Deaths 187, Total Cases 11438464, Total Deaths 159079, Active cases 236008

 

Cases: 1M April 2, 2M April 15, 3M April 27, 4M May 8, 5M May 20, 6M May 30, 7M June 7, 8M June 15, 9M June 22, 10M June 29th, 11M July 4, 12M July 8, 13M July 13, 14M July 17, 15M July 23, 16M July 25, 17M July 29, 18M August 1, 19M August 6, 20M August 10, 21M August 16, 22M August 19, 23M August 21, 24M August 27, 25M August 30, 26M September 3, 27M September 7, 28M September 10, 29M September 14, 30M September 18, 31M September 21, 32M September 23, 33M September 28, 34M October 1, 35M October 4, 36M October 8, 37M October 11, 38M October 14, 39M October 17, 40M October 19, 41M October 22, 42M October 24, 43M October 26, 44M October 28, 45M October 30, 46M November 2, 47M November 4, 48M November 6, 49M November 7, 50M November 8, 51M November 10, 52M November 12, 53M November 14, 54M November 15, 55M November 17, 56M November 19, 57M November 20, 58M November 22, 59M November 24, 60M November 25, 61M November 27, 62M November 29, 63M December 1, 64M December 2, 65M December 4, 66M December 6, 67M December 7, 68M December 9, 69M December 10, 70M December 12, 71M December 13, 72M December 14, 73M December 15, 74M December 17, 75M December 19, 76M December 20, 77M December 22, 78M December 23, 79M December 26, 80M December 27, 81M December 29, 82M December 30, 83M December 31, 84M January 2, 85M January 4, 86M January 6, 87M January 7, 88M January 8, 89M January 9, 90M January 10, 91M January 12, 92M January 14, 93M January 15, 94M January 17, 95M January 18, 96M January 20, 97M January 21, 98M January 23, 99M January 25, 100M January 26, 101M January 29, 102M January 30, 103M February 1, 104M February 4, 105M February 6, 106M February 8, 107M February 11, 108M February 13, 109M February 16, 110M February 18, 111M February 21, 112M February 24, 113M February 28, 114M March 1, 115M March 4, 116M March 6, 117M March 9, 118M March 11, 119M March 13, 120M March16, 121M March 18, 122M March 19, 123M March 22, 124M March 24, 125M March 26, 126M March 27, 127M March 30, 128M March 31, 129M April 2, 130M April 3, 131M April 5, 132M April 7, 133M April 8, 134M April 9, 135M April 11, 136M April 12, 137M April 14, 138M April 15, 139M April 16, 140M April 17, 141M April 19, 142M April 20, 143M April 21, 144M April 22, 145M April 24, 146M April 25, 147M April 26, 148M April 28, 149M April 29, 150M April 30, 151M May 1, 152M May 3, 153M May 4, 154M May 5, 155M May 6, 156M May 7, 157M May 9, 158M May 10, 159M May 11, 160M May 13, 161M May 14, 162M May 16 

Ground Zero: Wuhan - in live animal market or cafeteria for animal pathogens: 10th January, 2020; Total cases are based on RT PCR, 67% sensitivity

Variants - B 1.1.7 UK, B.1.351 South Africa, P1 Brazil 

B.1.1.7 lineage (20I/501Y.V1 VOC 202012/01): This variant carries a mutation in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein at position 501; asparagine (N) has been replaced with tyrosine (Y) at this position. The mutation is also termed as N501Y. This variant also carries other mutations, including -

  • 69/70 deletion: spontaneously occurred several times; possibly results in a conformational change in the spike protein; 
  • P681H: spontaneously occurred several times; near the S1/S2 furin cleavage site. 

The variant is tied to heightened transmissibility (more efficient and rapid transmission). In January this year, scientists from Britain pointed that the B.1.1.7 variant may be linked with increased risk of death in comparison with other variants. Early reports do not indicate that the variant affects the severity of disease or vaccine efficacy.

B.1.351 lineage (20H/501Y.V2): This variant carries several mutations in the spike protein, which include K417N, E484K, N501Y. This variant does not carry the 69/70 deletion. The variant was first detected in South Africa, in samples as old as from the start of October last year. Cases have been identified outside of South Africa as well. E484K mutation in this variant may have an impact on neutralization by some polyclonal and monoclonal antibodies.

P.1 lineage (20J/501Y.V3): This variant is a branch off the B.1.1.28 lineage, first identified by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) in Japan among four travelers from Brazil. The samples were tested during routine screening at Haneda airport. This variant has three mutations in the spike protein RBD, including K417T, E484K, and N501Y. Evidence indicates that some of the mutations in this variant may have an impact on its transmissibility and antigenic profile, thus affecting the potential of antibodies produced by a natural infection or vaccine to identify and neutralize the virus.

Some consequences of emerging variants:

  • Potential for quicker spread: D614G mutation increases the ability of the virus to spread more quickly compared to the wild-type virus. Laboratory experiments have shown that 614G variants propagate more quickly in human respiratory epithelial cells, and outperform the 614D viruses. Data also suggest that the 614G variant spreads more quickly than viruses without the mutation.
  • Potential to cause milder or more severe disease in people: The 1.1.7 variant may be tied to a heightened risk of death compared to other variants.
  • Potential to evade detection by viral diagnostic tests: 1.1.7 has S gene target failure
  • Diminished susceptibility to therapeutic agents like monoclonal antibodies: 1.1.28
  • Potential to evade natural or vaccine-induced immunity: 1.1.28

Once a large population receives vaccination, immune pressure would likely facilitate and speed up the emergence of such variants by selecting for escape mutants. [CDC]

India predictions

  1. Death rate is deaths today vs number of cases today.
  2. Corrected death rate is deaths today vs number of cases 14 days back.
  3. For one symptomatic test positive case, there are 10-30 asymptomatic cases and 20 untested cases.
  4. Estimated number of deaths = Reported deaths x 2.
  5. Number of deaths today should be 15% of the serious patients present 14 days back.
  6. Amongst active cases, 2.37% are serious, 1.82% need oxygen, and 0.41% need ventilator support.

Facts

DENSITY: India: In states with average population density of 1185/sq km, the average number of cases were 2048. On the contrary, in states with population density of 909/sq km, the number of cases were 56. When Chandigarh and Pondicherry were taken out from this group, the Average Density of other states were 217 and the average number of cases were 35. [HCFI]

COVID Sutra: COVID-19 pandemic is due to SARS 2 Beta-coronavirus (different from SARS 1 where spread was only in serious cases); with over eleven virus sequences floating; Causes Mild or Atypical Illness in 82%, Moderate to Severe Illness in 15%, Critical Illness in 3% and Death in 2.3% cases (15% of admitted serious cases, 71% with comorbidity< Male > Females); affects all but Predominantly Males (56%, 87% aged 30-79, 10% Aged < 20, 3% aged > 80); with Variable Incubation Period days (2-14; mean 5.2 days);  Mean Time to Symptoms 5 days;  Mean Time to Pneumonia 9 days, Mean Time to Death 14 days,  Mean Time to CT changes 4 Days, Reproductive Number R0 1.5 to 3  (Flu 1.2 and SARS 2), Epidemic Doubling Time 7.5 days; Origin Possibly from Bats (Mammal); Spreads via Human to Human Transmission via Large and Small Droplets and Surface to Human Transmission via Viruses on Surfaces for up to three days. Enters through MM of eyes, nose or mouth and the spike protein gets attached to the ACE2 receptors. ACE2 receptors make a great target because they are found in organs throughout our bodies (heart muscle, CNS, kidneys, blood vessels, liver). Once the virus enters, it turns the cell into a factory, making millions of copies of itself, which are then breathed or coughed out and infect others.

The most important

  1. Masking is THE prevention
  2. RT PCR cT is THE test for diagnosis
  3. Zinc is THE Vitamin
  4. Day 5 is THE day in COVID phase for mortality prevention
  5. Day 90 is THE day after which the word COVID ends
  6. Home Isolation is THE modality of Treatment
  7. 12 years is THE age when the mortality starts
  8. CRP is THE lab test for seriousness
  9. Loss of Smell is THE symptom equal to RT PCR test
  10. 15 minutes is THE time to get the infection.

Numbers to remember

  1. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2770945: RDW at admission 14.5%

Other Sutras

  1. Viral particles are seen in tears, stool, kidneys, liver, pancreas, heart, semen, peritoneal fluid, CSF.
  2. Thrombosis: University of Pennsylvania has reported that clots are seen in patients even on blood thinners. 
  3. Other human beta-coronaviruses have immunity lasting only for one year with no IMMUNITY PASSPORT.
  4. In absence of interventions, prolonged or intermittent social distancing (till 2022-24) is the key.
  5. Due to low levels of cross immunity from other beta-coronaviruses against SARS-CoV-2, the virus may appear to fade away, only to show resurgence after a few years. Surveillance till 2024.
  6. During peak, trace and treat, and after the peak, trace and treat the close contacts.
  7. Increased spread: Close environment, crowded place with close physical contacts with no ventilation.
  8. Strategies: From community mitigation to individual containment; broader good over individual autonomy; perfect cannot be the enemy of the good; pandemics are fought on the grounds and not the hospitals. Treat the patient and not the test report; consider every surface and every asymptomatic person as virus carrier.
  9. HCW: Direct patient exposure time < 30 minutes; 7 days work and 7 days holidays.
  10. Italy: mortality reduced when they were short of ventilators.
  11. Hospital at HOME: CHF, mild pneumonia, exacerbations of asthma and COPD, cellulitis, and urinary tract infections.
  12. Great Imitator (protean manifestation).
  13. IgM can be false positive in pregnancy, immunological diseases; Pooled tests when seroprevalence is <2%.
  14. Early treatment, day 3-5, to reduce the viral load and prevent cytokine storm.
  15. Hypoxia: Low flow oxygen <6l/mt, titrated to high flow oxygen using non rebreathing mask, Venturi mask, HFNC and helmet CPAP, NIV in supine or prone position.
  16. Early intubation with prone ventilation only if progressive. Hypoxia (walking dead) have capillary problem and not alveoli.

Formulas and Predictions

Deaths

  1. The goal is to save lives. Monitoring deaths is important, especially when testing is limited.
  2. Daily deaths are the best indicator of the progression of the pandemic, although there is generally a 17- to 21-day lag between infection and deaths.
  3. Deaths in symptomatic cases: Less than one percent (best of the care).
  4. Therefore, Deaths X 100 = expected number of symptomatic cases
  5. Some may count probable or presumptive COVID-19 deaths when cases are not confirmed with a positive test but on the basis of symptoms and medical history. In New York, 3,700 presumptive deaths were added in one day in April last year when testing was limited.
  6. Case fatality rate: Number of total deaths as on date/number of total RTPCR positive cases as on today
  7. Infection fatality rate: Number of total deaths as on date/number of total calculated cases as on today
  8. Number of reported deaths = Number of confirmed deaths x 2

 

Prediction Metrics

 

  1. The University of Washingtons Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME):

 

Is based on what is known about a disease and how peoples actions may affect that.

 

Forecasts are not fixed but change depending on public behavior. When people learn that new cases are rising, they start wearing masks and using social distancing again; and when they realize that fresh cases are dropping, they tend to drop their guard.  IHME makes use of real-time infection data from Johns Hopkins Universitys Coronavirus Resource Center to represent disease transmission and estimate how many Americans will die. The researchers then estimate how many Americans are wearing masks or using social distancing, which can modulate the final model.

 

The rate of infection in a population is based on the "R0," or reproduction number. R0 represents the average number of people who will contract the infection from a single infected person, in a population thats never been witness to the disease before. If R0 is 3, it suggests that one case will create an average of three new cases. When that transmission rate of infection occurs at a specific time, its called an "effective R," or "Rt."  R0 less than 1 means the epidemic is under control; and when its higher than 1, it is still spreading.

 

IHME found the "effective R over 1 in Oklahoma. In all other states the effective R was found to be less than 1.”

 

  1.     CDC: Relies on positive tests results. CDCs report these as confirmed cases. The positivity rate suggests how tough or easy it is to find a case, which is an indicator of both the spread of COVID-19 and how widespread testing is. If the rate of positive tests is 20%, one doesn’t have to look hard to find a case, compared to 1%, which means that one has to do a lot of tests to get a positive one. The more COVID-19 spreads, the higher the positivity rate. A 60% positivity rate may suggest that testing is only being done in a nursing home during an outbreak or a hospital where the most apparent cases are and not the general population where cases may be milder.

 

  1.     Marylands COVID-19 dashboard: It reports the daily positivity percentage (percentage of positive tests and total testing volume since March). While looking at testing, one wants to know how many tests were done historically with the ability to compare and understand if the number has increased or declined or is stable and the percentage that is positive. Maryland and Pennsylvania report a 7-day rolling average of the daily positivity percentages. The 7-day average rate better indicates a trend as compared to daily numbers.

 

  1.     The testing numbers often fluctuate, depending on where testing is done and when the labs report test results. A sudden surge in testing numbers may point to a large number of tests done in a group setting such as a nursing home or prison on a single day. Laboratories and hospitals report test results on weekdays, so the numbers can decline on weekends.

 

  1.     A major goal during the coronavirus epidemic has been to flatten the curve to maintain local hospital capacity. After expected COVID-19 surges, many hospitals limited surgeries and admissions to preserve their resources, including hospital beds, ventilators, and healthcare personnel. [WebMD]

 

 

Infrastructure Capacity

  1.     If hospital capacity reaches 80%, we may have to stop admitting patients to prevent the hospital from being overwhelmed.
  2.     In order to plan for surges and increase capacity: It is required to know the number of people who tested positive and were admitted to the hospital with symptoms of COVID-19.
  3.     Pennsylvanias COVID-19 dashboard:  has a hospital preparedness page that shows the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients and the number and percentage of available beds by unit, including intensive care, medical/surgical, and airborne isolation.
  4.     Pennsylvania: Reports the number of ventilators COVID-19 patients and non-COVID-19 patients use every day.
  5.     Illinois lists the recovery rate: In Illinois, the recovery rate of 95% has been calculated as recovered cases divided by recovered cases plus confirmed deaths. This indicates the quality of medical care and the severity of disease.[WebMD]

Some more numbers

  1. Cases will double after the average doubling time of the country at that time
  2. Cases expected in the community: Get number of deaths occurring in a five-day period

Estimate the number of infections required to generate these deaths based on the country or area case fatality rate

Compare that to the number of new cases actually detected in the five-day period.

This can then give us an estimate of the total number of cases, confirmed and unconfirmed

  1. Lock down effect: Reduction in cases after average incubation period (5 days)
  2. Lock down effect in reduction in deaths: Reduction in number of deaths on day 14 (average time to death of that country)
  3. Requirement of ventilators on day 9: 1-3% of number of new cases detected
  4. Requirement of future oxygen on day 7: 10% of total cases detected today
  5. Number of people which can be managed at home care: 90% of number of cases today
  6. Requirement of ventilators: 1-3% of number of cases admitted 7-9 days back
  7. Requirement of oxygen beds today: 10% of total cases admitted seven days back
  8. Number of unreported or untested cases: Number of reported cases x 10-30 (depending on the country, New York 10, Delhi 23.8, Pakistan 30)
  9. Number of asymptomatic cases: For 6 symptomatic cases, 200 asymptomatic cases (CHINA); (1.78 M tests in Hong Kong, 32 asymptomatic cases, 10 symptomatic cases)
  10. Oxygen requirement on that day in the hospital at 6am: Number of cases detected to have hypoxia on six minutes walk test.

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