Age is the most important risk factor for weight gain and young adults are most likely to become overweight and/or obese, according to a new study published in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology.

Researchers from the University College London and Berlin Institute of Health examined primary care health records from more than 2 million adults in England between 1998 and 2016 to find out changes in body weight after one year, five years and 10 years. The probability of progressing to higher weight categories was also calculated for the different age groups.

Results showed that compared to the oldest adults (aged 65-74 years) in the study, those in the youngest age group (18-24 years) were 4.2 times more likely to become overweight or develop obesity in the next decade. The young adults who were overweight at baseline were 4.6 times more likely to become obese at 10 years. They were also 5.9 times more likely to progress from non-severe (class 1 and 2) obesity to severe (class 3) obesity compared to the overweight or obese individuals in other age groups.

Traditional risk factors such as socioeconomic status, ethnicity were found to have little effect on this risk.

Researchers have also developed an open access online risk calculator to help individuals calculate their risk of weight change over the next 1, 5, and 10 years. This calculator includes variables like the current weight, height, age, sex, ethnicity and socioeconomic area.

Prevention, as we know, is always better than cure.

Guidelines on management of obesity currently focus on individuals who are already obese. This study provides an opportunity for policy makers to direct their efforts towards preventing obesity in the young adults, who are not yet obese, but are at the highest risk of weight gain in the next decade compared to adults in any other age group. This study has also shown that obese individuals in the 35–54-year age group found it most difficult to lose weight compared to other adults. Hence, appropriate interventions that target young adults are the need of the hour, if there is still some hope of curbing the escalating obesity pandemic.

Reference

1. Katsoulis M, et al. Identifying adults at high-risk for change in weight and BMI in England: a longitudinal, large-scale, population-based cohort study using electronic health records. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2021 Sep 2;S2213-8587(21)00207-2. doi: 10.1016/S2213-8587(21)00207-2.