Researchers at IIT-Kanpur predict that a third COVID-19 wave, which will likely be driven by the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, may peak in India by February 3.

Following the global trends, the project report predicts India’s third COVID wave to start around mid-December and peak at the start of February. The researchers used the Gaussian Mixture model to predict the third wave. The report has been published in the online preprint server MedRxiv. 

In order to forecast the likely third wave, the report used data of the first and second waves in the country, and the current surge in cases driven by Omicron in various other countries. The researchers stated the study suggests that cases peak after 735 days from the initial date of observation, which is January 30, 2020, when the country logged its first COVID-19 case. Therefore, they predicted that the cases start increasing around December 15, 2021, and the peak will be reached on February 3, 2022… (ET Healthworld – TNN, December 24, 2021)