Doctors in India show concern on the fast rising cases of the Omicron variant and high probability of the third wave due o the mass gatherings ahead of key elections, marriages etc. Indias Omicron cases have more than tripled in the past week. Last Tuesday cases were 236 compared to the present 781 infections. The real number of Omicron cases might be higher than official figures due to insufficient testing and negligence in following COVID precautionary protocols, 

VK Paul, head of the countrys COVID Task Force, at a news conference on December 17 said that if India observes that same pattern as the United Kingdom, around 1.4 million daily COVID cases would be reported in India.

India has been steadily reporting 6,000 to 9,000 total COVID cases daily since the last month. Mumbai itself is reporting 600 to 800 new daily cases in previous weeks and 2,510 cases on Wednesday. New Delhi reported more than 900 cases on Wednesday, which is a sharp increase from the start of the month.

The Federal Health Ministry warned last week that researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology projected a third wave that could peak between late winter and early spring and the situation might be similar to the second wave and completely overburden Indias health care system. The second wave was also preceded by a state election resulting in large mass gatherings and doctors warnings went unheeded. Now, experts fear India may be on the cusp of a third wave.

Though the data from other countries suggest that Omicron may cause milder disease, but the strains higher transmissibility and Indias huge population size could result in more infections.

India has vaccinated about 42.2% of the population, and will start vaccinating children ages 15 to 18 from early January and administer the booster shots for priority groups such as health care workers and the elderly.

Om Srivastava, an infectious diseases and immunology expert based in Mumbai said that the variant holds a high number of mutations and it was difficult to predict whether it would remain mild or turn nasty. Due to the specific test and complex steps for genomic fingerprinting, it was difficult to detect Omicrons spike protein, so it was unclear exactly how many of the new cases were emerging.

The central government recommended states implement new restrictions, night curfews, using face masks and restricting the number of people in gatherings from last week. Delhi, Mumbai, Karnataka, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh have implemented new restrictions until further notice. But, still some health experts and authorities fear these precautions wont be enough.