The World Health Organization presented an updated COVID-19 plan on Wednesday which if executed would help end the pandemic′s emergency phase. The strategy includes three scenarios for how the virus might evolve in the next year.

The three scenario strategy included the base-case scenario, which would act as WHO′s working model. It states that the virus mostly causes less severe outbreaks with periodic surges in transmission as immunity diminishes and follow a seasonal pattern like other viral diseases. Hence, booster doses would be needed those who were at high risk and had poor immunity.

The best-case scenario would be the emergence of less severe variants in future, not requiring future boosting or significant changes to current vaccines.

The third and the worst-case scenario could be the transformation of the virus into a new, highly transmissible and deadly threat, leading to reduced effectiveness of the currently available vaccines and more requirements for booster doses for the vulnerable groups.

To help end the emergency, WHO urged countries to maintain or improve virus surveillance and vaccination. WHO continues to advocate the goal of vaccinating 70% of the world′s population against COVID, with more emphasis on the vulnerable groups. (ET Healthworld, March 31, 2022)