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Predictors of long Covid

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Dr Surya Kant, Professor and Head, Dept. of Respiratory Medicine, KGMU, UP, Lucknow. National Vice Chairman IMA-AMS    23 July 2022

People who experience hair loss, headache or sore throat during acute Covid-19 are at greater risk of developing long Covid, suggests a new study published in Scientific Reports.1 The study also found that the probability of long Covid was higher in the obese patients.

Researchers from the University of Southern California in Los Angeles analyzed data from 308 non-hospitalized patients with Covid-19 obtained from the ongoing Understanding America Study (UAS) COVID-19 study, which surveyed around 8000 adults twice in a week from March 2020 to March 2021. The selected participants were interviewed 1 month before their infection, around the time of infection, and 12 weeks after infection. They aimed to determine the prevalence of long Covid, identify the common long Covid symptoms including factors that increased the likelihood of developing long Covid. The study evaluated 18 self-reported symptoms: chest congestion, sore throat, cough, runny or stuffy nose, headache, fever or chills, sneezing, loss of hair, muscle/body ache, fatigue or tiredness, shortness of breath, vomiting, abdominal discomfort, dry skin, body temperature greater than 100.4 F or 38.0 C, diarrhea, loss of smell and skin rash. 

Out of the total population surveyed, 23% developed new symptoms during the infection lasting for more than 3 months and hence were considered as having long COVID. The commonest new symptom was headache, which was reported by 22% followed by runny or stuffy nose (19%), abdominal discomfort (18%), fatigue (17%) and diarrhea (13%).

Covid-19 patients who had hair loss during the infection were nearly 7 times at risk of developing long Covid with an odds ratio of 6.94. Long Covid was almost six times more common in the obese subjects with odds ratio of 5.44. Other symptoms associated with the probability of long Covid were headache with OR of 3.37 and sore throat with OR 3.56. However, the study found no association of factors such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, current smoking status, or comorbid chronic conditions with risk of long Covid. 

This study has delineated symptoms at the time of acute Covid-19 infection that may predispose to long Covid. Identification of at-risk persons allows early institution of treatment to reduce their intensity, if not to prevent them altogether. This study was conducted during the first year of the pandemic and did not examine other long Covid symptoms such as brain fog, cognitive impairment, etc., which the authors note could be a limitation of their study.

Reference

  1. Qiao Wu, et al. Long COVID and symptom trajectory in a representative sample of Americans in the first year of the pandemic. Sci Rep. 2022 Jul 8;12(1):11647. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-15727-0.

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